Tuesday 23rd June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You might expect that as oil prices fall and the potential for economic growth resumes, big tech would be riding the wave. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains today, US share indices have been driven down by two falls in two giants – SpaceX is own over 12% and Alphabet lost 6% at one stage, each for very different reasons. Meanwhile the resignation of the UK Prime Minister barely registered on markets. Canadian inflation ticked up a little but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for the Bank of Canada. Today, PMIs for Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, the UK and the US. And a 30 second eulogy for former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who died yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

More peace hope, more tech caution

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (NAB)
- **Ray Attrill** (NAB)

## Transcript

Oil prices fall as peace talks with Iran seemingly move forward. A big dip in big tech, Canada's inflation creeps up a bit and regime change in the UK. Could the new Prime Minister be another former metropolitan mayor? Look how that worked out for them last time. And PMI Day today, it's Tuesday, it's the 23rd of June 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning.

Well, who'd have thought it? Oil falling further today, down 2.8% for WTI and 3.5% off Brent, which is now below 73.70 a barrel. It did get down to 73.24. We've got sizable falls in US equities, though. The Nasdaq is down 1%, 0.3% off the S&P. But in Europe, the DAX finished up 0.6%, the FTSE 100 up 0.7%. It's big tech taking that fall in the United States. That's the reason for the difference.

And US Treasury yields are up 6 basis points for 10 years, but in Europe, yields are down, down 3 or 4 basis points across much of Europe. Aussie 10 years were at 4.81% yesterday, but a few basis points up from that now on futures. A slight increase in the US dollar at 101 on the DXY index, the Aussie down 0.2% to almost exactly 70 US cents.

So, despite concerns that the ceasefire might have been derailed from the beginning, it's a very different picture today. The US has allowed Iran to sell oil for 60 days on the international market, lifting that blockade on Iranian ports. That explains the oil price. And J.D. Vance has said that Iran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, although Iran has apparently denied that claim.

But, hey, still, progress. Here's NAB's Ray Attrill joining me this morning. I mean, it's looking a little bit brighter, isn't it? Morningfield, yes. Certainly, definitely brighter compared to the news that we had over the weekend. And then we sort of become accustomed to both parties still kind of saying, you know, some aggression, if you like, or some difference of opinion along the way.

But certainly the direction of travel is encouraging. And in particular, this issue that now we are actually seeing some evidence that nuclear is part of the discussion in terms of what they're going to do and how they're going to go about it. So, it's still early days in that regard. But certainly it's quite a positive step. And as you mentioned, it's been reflected in lower oil prices. So, fingers crossed.

And this loss in shares, so it seems counterintuitive, doesn't it oil down, but shares also down because all of the potential enthusiasm for all of this has been counteracted by big losses in mega caps. In particular, SpaceX is down over 12% this morning out of the stratosphere now. So, what's happening there? Well, SpaceX has made announcements of intentions to issue debt. So, that kind of was weighed on sentiment.

And my sense is that, you know, it's had a good run for one after the IPO. And there will be more than one perso...

More peace hope, more tech caution

Transcript

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More peace hope, more tech caution

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.