The latest in finance, economics and investment. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene &amp; Paul SweeneyMonday, June 15, 2026 Featuring: 1) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, talks about how markets are making sense of the Iran interim deal as well as Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. 2) Steph Guild, Chief Investment Strategist at Robinhood, talks about the legs of the equity rally and the risk of a rising VIX. 3) Julian Lee, oil strategist with Bloomberg News, on how the Iran interim deal is rippling through oil and energy markets. 4) Jim Rowan, Principal, US Head of AI at Deloitte, discusses the firm&#x27;s paper on the AI token economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US-Iran Interim Deal and Fed Chair Warsh

Bloomberg Surveillance

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Bloomberg Surveillance

## Transcript

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Rebecca Patterson right now, to be kind, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her work at Bridgewater, Bessemer, J.P. Morgan over the years. Thrilled she could join. I guess I got to do the Fed meeting. To me, it could be dramatic. If he's going to change things, he doesn't want to dawdle around, does he? I mean, I think priority one, two and three this week is reinforce the Fed's credibility.

You don't want any questions about any political bias. So that's that's goal number one for Kevin Warsh this week, I think, which he should be able to execute beautifully. I think beyond that, if he does a press conference, I expect he will, but it's not a given. If he does a press conference, then that'll be his opportunity to lay out the priorities. What is he going to focus on first? I would imagine he wants to review all the economic models, the processes. He's going to review communication.

He's already been very vocal about having less communication. Think more, speak less. It has been for years. Yes. It's not a new thing. The balance sheet will wait. Yeah. So, Rebecca, obviously he's got some level of pressure from the president from the White House to lower rates. But wait, the data is not there. He's got a committee he has to deal with. Yep. I would think the messaging this week is as much for the rest of us, i.e. the market, maybe even more so for the president. Yeah.

I mean, he's got a difficult needle to thread here, right? Keep the president on his side, ideally, but build credibility and trust with his colleagues at the FOMC. I mean, and to your point on the data, I mean, right now, core PCE for May is tracking at around 3.3 percent year on year. If that's the number that comes in or something like that, there's no way they can cut rates anytime soon.

And even if the Strait of Hormuz does open soon, which we all hope it does, and oil prices retreat further, you still have a strong economy, now probably stronger. You have inflation coming through the AI channel as well as other channels. And so it seems like the market pricing and the possibility of a hike makes a lot more sense. So that is going to be a challenge for Chairman Warsh, for sure. What about the U.S. dollar here?

We kind of came into the year, I guess the consensus on the street was for a weaker dollar, and then the war with Iran starts and we had that flight equality like we typically see. Now what? Well, the dollar until the news over the weekend was down or sorry, was down against only two major currencies, the Norwegian crown and the Australian dollar, both big commodity exporters.

It was stronger against everything ...

US-Iran Interim Deal and Fed Chair Warsh

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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US-Iran Interim Deal and Fed Chair Warsh

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.