Monday - August 3, 2026
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7
David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan’s Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury’s reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:23 July Market Recap
02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot
03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions
05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil
05:39 Washington Policy Update
07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts
09:01 Rates and Housing Impact
09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move
12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns
13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode
13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan’s Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury’s reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:23 July Market Recap
02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot
03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions
05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil
05:39 Washington Policy Update
07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts
09:01 Rates and Housing Impact
09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move
12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns
13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode
13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
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