AI chips, retails giants, and legacy motorcycles take Don Kaufman&#x27;s focus amid a sharp rally on headlines of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. He sees Harley Davidson (HOG) shares hitting the gas in the near-future, Walmart (WMT) capturing more bearish interest, and Marvell (MRVL) continuing its recent uptrend as retail trade accelerates. Don backs his Big 3 with example options trades while Rick Ducat offers technical analysis in the stock charts. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Big 3: HOG, WMT, MRVL

Schwab Network

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Schwab Network

## Participants

- **Jenny Horne** (Schwab Network)
- **Don Kaufman** (TheoTrade)
- **Rick Ducat** (None)

## Transcript

I'm Jenny Horne and it's time for the Big 3. Three stocks, three charts and three trades. Rick Ducat will take us through the charts and here to take us through the trades is Don Kaufman, co-founder of TheoTrade. Great to see you both start off this Wednesday. Don, let's start with really your big picture thoughts as we assess right now this very clear market rally. We're having a rally of course today, state the obvious here, but there's nothing going on that was not well foreseen.

Like I think a lot of people are probably looking at the current moving going, this is an unprecedented move to the upside. You know, in the SPX specifically, so the SPX is of course the options marketplace, S&P 500. It was pricing in this week, a $168 move and to my estimation right now, we're literally $168 higher on the week right now. So net net, where are we right now?

Precisely what the marketplace was anticipating the risk to effectively be. So the S&P is handicapped this forward risk extraordinarily well. Yeah, no, it absolutely is. And so now to dive into your first trade, which is Harley-Davidson, we know this name has already had a pretty strong run. So risk and reward could be a bit more fragile from here. But what technical signals and what really momentum are you looking at that could signal that perhaps some of this strength could be losing steam?

Yeah, so I'm much more of a quantitative trader. I'm going to be less into the technicals. I'm going to leave some of that to Rick. But to point out, I do believe that the risk reward right now is tilted right back down to the downside. That most of this run, if you look at some of the technicals, which we will hear momentarily, most of this run has actually played out. But Harley Davidson has actually exceeded its expectations of movement in the last couple of weeks back to back on a statistical point of view. I'm looking for a pullback.

This is nothing like outright bearish. It's just looking for kind of a minor pullback. And in order to be able to trade that where I think that there's effective risk reward and that risk reward right now is favored to the downside. Nothing crazy, just a little bit of a pullback. I'm actually going to go ahead and use a kind of shallow in time put spread. And when I say shallow in time, I'm going to go out to the April 24th options expiration. I'm just going to buy the 22 puts and sell the 20 puts against them.

So it's just a $2 wide put spread done for a 75 cent debit. And this is, again, it's just a defined risk spread looking for kind of a quick pullback here where you have 75 cents at risk. Your upside is about $1.25. Again, with favorable conditions, a nice little pullback here sees degrees of profitability. Okay, I like that. Just, you know, perhaps utilizing some of the strength for some perhaps a...

The Big 3: HOG, WMT, MRVL

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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The Big 3: HOG, WMT, MRVL

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.