In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Riskbank, Norges Bank and BoE meetings this week and also talk (again) about the latest developments in UK politics following the Makerfield by-election. This podcast was recorded on 19 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5341115-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5339725-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5341244-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Rates: Scandi and BoE Central Bank wrap up, UK politics (again)

At Any Rate

Hi and welcome to At Any Rate, J.P. Morgan's global research podcast where we take a look at some of the drives behind the biggest trends and themes across fixed income, currencies and commodity markets. I'm Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan and today I'm joined by my colleague Ineska Kristovova to discuss the Rixbank, Norgebank and BOE meetings this week and also talk again about the latest developments in UK politics following the maker field of by-election.

So, Kendra, let's start with the Rixbank who left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week with some tweaks to its forecast. How do you read the Riksbank messaging here on the path of policy rates and what's priced into the market? Thanks, Francis. Yeah, the Rixbank kept rates unchanged and made, as you mentioned, minor tweaks to its forecast.

They now have an explicit hiking bias in the sense that their forecast now shows around 50% probability of a 25 basis point hike by December of this year and a full hike by end of next year. So these are around, you know, at least in the front end, are around five basis points higher relative to the March forecast.

In my mind, these revisions were dovish compared to the market expectations, which was pricing almost a full hike by September, October going into the meeting. And then this pricing has now been pushed still towards late Q4, 26. So well ahead of Rixbank's current guidance.

I think, you know, current core inflation, which is measured by CPIF excluding energy, is current is around 0.5% versus a target of 2% and is expected to stay low for a few months.

Global Rates: Scandi and BoE Central Bank wrap up, UK politics (again)

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Rates: Scandi and BoE Central Bank wrap up, UK politics (again)

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.