Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Second, Kevin Warsh presided over his first meeting as Fed Chairman, resulting in a slightly more hawkish tilt to monetary policy in the short run and the promise of significant reform in the long run.

The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape

Notes on the Week Ahead

Hello, and welcome to Notes on the Week Ahead, a J.P. Morgan Asset Management podcast that provides insights on the markets and the economy to help you stay informed in the week ahead. Dr. David Kelly Hello, this is Dr. David Kelly. I'm Chief Strategist here at JPMorgan Asset Management. Today is June 22, 2026.

Last week, as the frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Second, Kevin Warsh presided over his first meeting as Fed Chairman, resulting in a slightly more hawkish tilt to monetary policy in the short run and the promise of significant reform in the long run.

In the rush of market moving news that has characterized 2026 so far, it's worth pausing to assess the implications of both of these events. On Sunday, June 14, both the US President and the Pakistani Prime Minister announced that a Memorandum of Understanding, or MOU, had been agreed to by the United States and Iran. Some of the contents of the agreement were leaked in subsequent days, and the full details of the memorandum were released to the press on Wednesday, June 17.

In the 14-point document, and in simple language, the US and Iran agreed to, 1. The immediate termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. A respect for each other's sovereignty and a promise not to interfere in the other's internal affairs. 3. A plan to negotiate a final deal within 60 days. 4. An end to the US blockade of Iranian ports and the removal of US forces from proximity to Iran within 30 days of a final deal.

The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.