On this episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Scott discuss the impacts of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural and other trade, the Trump administration&#x27;s continued efforts to implement Section 301 tariffs, and the ongoing tariff refund litigation.

China's Retaliatory Tariffs, Section 301 Authorities, and Tariff Refund Litigation

The Trade Guys

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**Podcast:** The Trade Guys

## Transcript

I'm Scott Miller. I'm Bill. And we're The Trade Guys. We're listening to The Trade Guys, a podcast produced by CSIS, where we talk about trade in terms that everyone can understand. I'm Alex Kisling, and I'm here with Scott Miller and Bill Reich, the CSIS Trade Guys.

Thanks for listening to The Trade Guys. On today's episode, we examine the impact of China's retaliatory tariffs, take a look at the Trump administration's new use of Section 301 Authorities, and unpack the latest litigation around tariff refunds. All that and more on this episode of The Trade Guys.

Well, Bill and Scott, it's great to be back with you after a few weeks of episodes with some great guests. And I want to dive right into our first topic today by taking a step back and talking through the effects of Chinese retaliatory tariffs, particularly on the U.S. agriculture sector. A new study from North Dakota State University found that China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag goods wiped out an estimated $14.9 billion in export sales over 12 months. So, Scott, let's look under the hood here. What stands out to you as you look through these numbers?

This is basically a disruption of an old relationship. The old relationship is U.S. soybean sales to China. This goes back to basically China's growth in the early part of this century. And one of the things that happened as people raised their living standards is they improved their diet. More people were demanding the addition of meat, in this case pork, in their diet.

And soybeans is primarily a very efficient food for pigs. So there was an agriculture match made in heaven, at least for the moment at the time. And so the U.S. found a great source of sales, net sales additional for their soybeans and other products. And Chinese consumers improved their diet as it became more and more important element of trade between the two countries.

And as trade tensions rose, it became one of the obvious places for trade pressure and retaliation. And that's indeed what happened with soybeans. China, basically, you look at it broadly, they changed sources. They switched their purchases from the United States to Brazil and Argentina, principally. This had an immediate effect in slowing down sales and therefore exports from the U.S.

Over the course of crop cycle, most of the consumption of soybeans was the same worldwide. But what happened is your sourcing changed. So China sourced Brazil and Argentina, principally, instead of the United States. U.S. soybeans went to Europe instead of China. Europe previously had gotten soybeans from Argentina and Brazil. So there was a change in the shipping patterns. But it showed up in net losses, as the North Dakota State University survey showed, net losses for U.S. farmers.

And it was sort of broadly across agriculture. There was a big drop in total ag sales to China. From 2024 to 2025, sales dropped from $24 billion to $8 billion. So its st...

China's Retaliatory Tariffs, Section 301 Authorities, and Tariff Refund Litigation

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China's Retaliatory Tariffs, Section 301 Authorities, and Tariff Refund Litigation

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.