In this week&#x27;s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair and what the potential end of forward guidance means for CRE investors. We also examine Apollo&#x27;s decision to wind down ARI, revisit key themes from our conversation with Scott Rechler on the &quot;Age of Disruption&quot; and why today&#x27;s environment increasingly favors operators, explore what current office cap rates may be signaling about market sentiment, and break down credit risk transfer (CRT) and its potential impact on bank lending. We close with several notable trading alerts, including Bank of America Plaza in Los Angeles and the Fairmont Austin. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update: Fed Holds Rates Steady • Apollo To Shutter Mortgage REIT Following $9B Loan Sale • Scott Rechler, RXR on the Age of Disruption, AI &amp; NYC Office Cap Rates • 101: Credit Risk Transfer and What It Means for Bank Lending • Office Deals &amp; Trading Alerts: BofA Plaza, 26 Broadway, Illinois Center • Deals &amp; Trading Alerts: Multifamily, Industrial, Retail &amp; Lodging • Programming Notes • Shoutouts Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

402. The New Reality: Warsh's Fed, CRE Disruption, Apollo's Exit, & Credit Risk Transfer 101

The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

## Participants

- **Haley Keen** (Trepp)
- **Lonnie Hendry** (Trepp)
- **Stephen Bushbaum** (Trepp)
- **Scott Rechler** (RXR)

## Transcript

Welcome to the TreppWire Podcast, the show where commercial real estate meets data and insights. This is our week in review for the week ending June 19th, 2026. I'm Haley Keen with Trepp, a data, modeling, and analytics firm for the CMBS, commercial real estate, and CLO markets. I'm with Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer, and Stephen Bushbaum, Head of Applied Research and Analytics.

This week, the macro story really starts with the Fed. The FOMC held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, but this was not a quiet meeting. It was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the statement was notably direct, and the updated projections suggested the committee is still wrestling with inflation that has not fully cooperated. At the same time, the economic data gave both sides of the argument something to point to. Retail sales came in stronger than expected, up to 0.9%.

9% in May, which suggests the consumer still has some spending power. But housing starts dropped sharply, builders' sentiment remains weak, and import prices rose again, largely because of fuel. So the Fed is looking at an economy that is still expanding, but with inflation pressure and rate-sensitive sectors still under strain. For commercial real estate, that matters because the hire-for-longer conversation has not gone away. Treasury yields, refinancing math, debt availability, and cap rate expectations are all

tied to whether the market sees cuts, pauses, or even another rate hike later this year. We also had a notable CRE Capital Markets headline. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance announced plans to dissolve and liquidate assets after selling its loan portfolio earlier this year. This is not the whole CRE story, but it is another reminder that the cleanup phase is still working its way through the market. We'll also share some sentiment from a recent discussion we had with Scott Rechler of

RXR and walk through a 101 on credit risk transfer, along with sharing some of Trep's latest trading alerts. So Stephen, starting with the Fed, what stood out to you from Warsh's first meeting, and how should Siri investors be reading this week's data?

The biggest takeaway from this meeting is that it's not just a new Fed chair. It may be a pretty meaningful change in how the Fed communicates and manages markets. Kevin Warsh has been very clear that he is not a big believer in forward guidance. So instead of the market getting a carefully messaged roadmap for the next several meetings, we may get a much more concise Fed. Here's what we see. Here's what we're doing. And markets can price the path from there.

And that may be refreshing, but it also may lead to more uncertainty for investors who had gotten used to leaning on the Fed's language for rate cut timing. And th...

402. The New Reality: Warsh's Fed, CRE Disruption, Apollo's Exit, & Credit Risk Transfer 101

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

402. The New Reality: Warsh's Fed, CRE Disruption, Apollo's Exit, & Credit Risk Transfer 101

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.