Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first Fed meeting ending forward guidance and launching task forces on communication and data quality, the massive curve flattener with the 2-year jumping 17bps and the 30-year dropping 6bps, restored inflation credibility through lower TIPS breakevens, the media pushback led by Nick Timiraos, Trump&#x27;s pivot into midterm &quot;it&#x27;s the economy&quot; mode after signing the Iran deal, today&#x27;s Philly Fed print, and the Bank of England holding at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as gilts sold off. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Warsh Shakes Up the Fed: No More Forward Guidance, Dollar Soars | June 18, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

The Morning Market Briefing

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**Podcast:** The Morning Market Briefing

## Transcript

Hey everybody, welcome to the Morning Market Briefing. It's Thursday, June 18, 2026. Hope you're doing well out there. No call tomorrow. A reminder, no call on Friday, June 19. Juneteenth is a stock market holiday, so we will not be here, but hope you guys have a great day off or a great day at work. Whatever you're doing, enjoy it. No call. Ben, let's jump in. We got a lot to cover. Most notably, perhaps, Kevin Warsh in his first press conference as Fed chair. Certainly a number of facets of that that I think people are going to cover.

Ben, let's see. I think it's a little bit more about what people will find fascinating, but he's not the only one talking about the economy. Trump seems to be making a hard pivot, moving straight into focusing on the midterms and really highlighting economic situations and even noting oil down stocks up in a deal signing. So Trump's making that move. I know people love when we talk politics, but this seemed inevitable that he would have to refocus.

Yeah, I think it's totally changed. He's trying to turn the page. He understands. It's very interesting when you think about Trump. He keys on things in history. And I have never heard him say it's the economy, stupid, but he's thinking it.

He's thinking it. And he thinks of these phrases and especially from the 80s and 90s, I feel like. And then he just puts it on repeat, repeat. And I'm sure that's going on repeat on the White House right now. So it's very interesting. At the G7 in his big press conference, he said, the one president I don't want to be like was Herbert Hoover.

He's like Nixon. I don't know. There's some others. I don't. But really didn't want to be Herbert Hoover and cause a depression. And we could have had a depression with this war. And he said, but we're not going to have that anymore. But he stopped the war. So. So I think that this what this so what in effect this means is I think it's going to be full court press from the White House

to get the economy motoring as strong as possible and the markets going as strong as possible into the midterms. It's going to be they're going to have to offset some of the supply that's coming in and not that's not being matched up with monetary supply increase. But I think it's definitely Besant's back front stage. I think he'll be back. I think some of these trade deals will be back. But I don't anticipate major tariff fights.

I know we're renegotiating the USMCA, but I think that's probably going to be. Go through and that's going to be very anticlimactic. Yeah. And so I think that he's really he knows that this is the one way they can salvage them in terms. It is improving this. That is the playbook. And we'll see how effective it is. I think that the I think the challenge that they're going to face is even throughout the war, whether you agreed with it or disagreed with it,

the opposition to Trump's party has been pretty front...

Warsh Shakes Up the Fed: No More Forward Guidance, Dollar Soars | June 18, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Transcript

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Warsh Shakes Up the Fed: No More Forward Guidance, Dollar Soars | June 18, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.