Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentum; if Brent holds near current levels, headline inflation could slide below ~2%ar and support 2H26 growth. While the difficult trade-off posed by a shock that raises inflation and lowers growth is being removed, central banks still need to contend with uncomfortably firm services price pressures and overall core inflation that remains stuck close to 3%. This podcast was recorded on July 02, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5345242-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5354109-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5333946-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332592-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5332794-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky

Global Data Pod

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Global Data Pod

## Participants

- **Nora Santivani** (J.P. Morgan Global Research)
- **Raphael Bern-Ager** (Euro area team)
- **Abiel Reinhart** (US team)

## Transcript

Welcome to Global Data Pod Research Wrap. I'm Nora Santivani, and this is our usual monthly inflation discussion after the publication of our Global Inflation Monitor. And we try and schedule these for the week when we also get the flash HICP released from the euro area so we have a bit more to talk about with more recent data.

So joining me today, I have Raphael Bern-Ager from the Euro area team and also Abil Reinhardt from the US team. Thanks for joining. So why don't I just start with a bit of a top down view on inflation and then kind of get you guys to speak a bit more in detail on your respective regions.

I think the main thing really is that headline inflation through the latest releases through May continued to step up. We did get a further boost from energy prices in May. That was the third consecutive month of quite substantial increases in consumer energy prices. And at this point, global inflation is running at 3.7% over a year ago, and that's about 1.2 percentage points higher than it was prior to the conflict.

So we've had a fairly big step up here in headline inflation. The three month annualized run rate also has shot up to above 6%. That's the strongest it's been since 2022. And that has been really tightening this squeeze on household purchasing power. Now, more recent developments, of course, are pointing in the other direction.

So the monthly CPI gains have started to cool and the sharp decline in oil prices that we've had this month in June are setting us up for a fairly meaningful deceleration in headline inflation momentum. If Brent holds around current levels, I think we're down to 70 dollars per barrel. I think every day I check the screens, it's moving even further down.

That would imply if I put it in my model, headline inflation could slide below about a 2% run rate really in coming months. So that would be a pretty significant move down. Now, outside of energy prices, of course, we're quite focused on core inflation and central banks are quite focused on this as well. Core inflation remains quite elevated around half a percentage point above central bank target. So there's still, you know, quite a bit of stickiness there.

I think the pass through from energy prices has been fairly limited so far. But despite that, we do see this ongoing stickiness and services inflation. And there's a sort of separate question about what core goods prices are going to do here. We see, you know, tech prices have soared. We also still have a number of these supply chain indicators pointing to upward pressure on goods prices.

You know, despite the fall off in oil, we are seeing some of these energy product prices and transportation prices remaining quite sticky on the way down. So I think there's a reasonable debate here around w...

Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky

Transcript

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Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.