Ian Lyngen, Vail Hartman, and Delaney Choi bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 17th, 2026, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dear Vol...

Macro Horizons

This is Macro Horizons, Episode 387, Dear Vol, presented by BMO Capital Markets. I'm your host, Ian Lyngen, here with Vail Hartman and Delaney Choi to bring you our thoughts from the trading desk for the upcoming week of August 17th. The combination of July's negative payrolls and a benign CPI report has left the balance of August as a period of stability for the macro narrative.

Dear Volatility, Thanks for the memories.

com with questions for future episodes. We value your input and hope to keep the show as interactive as possible. So that being said, let's get started. In the week just passed, the most meaningful event came in the form of economic data, specifically core CPI for the month of July printed at just 0.215. Now that marked an increase from June's level, which was negative 0.017.

But at the end of the day, the inflation report was benign enough to materially undermine the probability of a September rate hike. Now it goes without saying that between now and the September meeting, the FOMC and the market will have the benefit of the August data. August data will include both payrolls as well as CPI.

That being said, when considering the trajectory of the real economy in both June and July, it's not an issue where we're having a conversation about a single data print. In fact, the trajectory has been more consistent with the Fed starting the conversation about potential rate cuts as opposed to actively attempting to message a rate hike in September. However, our base case remains that the Fed will remain on hold for the balance of the year.

Dear Vol...

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The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Dear Vol...

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.