In our latest episode, the Confluence Macroeconomic Team breaks down the six geopolitical trends that we believe will shape the international landscape in the second half of 2026. From the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the dollar&#x27;s reserve currency status, to the government&#x27;s growing role in AI and the rise of quantum computing, the conversation covers the issues most likely to move markets in the months ahead.

Confluence of Ideas - The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook

Confluence Podcasts

Welcome to the Confluence of Ideas, a Confluence Investment Management Podcast focusing on major geopolitical and economic trends and their investment implications. I'm Phil Adler. In its Mid-Year 2026 Geopolitical Outlook report, Confluence identifies six big picture trends to help guide investment recommendations for the rest of the year.

And joining us today to discuss where we stand geopolitically at Mid-Year 2026 are Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Ferran Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash. Bill, first on this list, which is not meant to be exhaustive, is the issue of sea lanes and hegemony.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in the first part of the year does seem to demonstrate that the U.S. acting alone no longer has the capability or the willingness to ensure that this crucial route remains open for free passage of goods or for general use. What does this portend for other critical trade routes and sea lanes around the world?

Well, thanks, Phil. One of the key roles of a global hedgeman is the fostering of international trade. Although the role of international trade in maintaining peace is often overstated, there is evidence to argue that nations engaged in trade with each other do take that into account if they are considering war. By maintaining open sea lanes, the cost of trade is lowered.

Without this global public good, merchant ships would need to be armed to thwart piracy and would be required to make payments to nations that put up tollbooths. The British supported open trade via international treaties. In fact, about the only area where they gave some leeway was for Turkey in its control of the Dardanelles.

Confluence of Ideas - The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Confluence of Ideas - The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.