Anpanman explores the intense volatility currently rocking the space sector, providing a clinical breakdown of the 49% peak-to-trough drawdown in AST SpaceMobile. The episode uncovers a critical market dynamic: how SpaceX insiders, VCs, and employees are likely using public space stocks as a technical hedge for their private holdings. As the SpaceX lockup expiration approaches in August, the resulting short interest in ASTS has reached all-time highs, creating a temporary but severe price suppression that members of the SpaceMob should understand. Beyond the technicals, the episode dives into a fundamental transformation occurring at SpaceX. With new compute leasing deals for companies like Google and Anthropic totaling billions in monthly revenue, SpaceX is shifting its identity toward terrestrial data centers. Anpanman explains how this shift introduces significant basis risk for short sellers and reinforces why AST SpaceMobile remains the primary pure-play leader in the Direct to Device satellite market. Crucial updates regarding AST SpaceMobile&#x27;s international expansion are also highlighted. Following the Japanese regulatory approval of the 700 MHz spectrum for satellite use, the path is now clear for the J-LEO project. This public-private partnership aims to create a satellite-based emergency network for Japan, and AST SpaceMobile’s ability to connect to unmodified existing handsets gives it a decisive architectural advantage over Starlink. We also look at recent S-band spectrum approvals in Brazil and the upcoming Block 1 launch schedule. 00:00 Intro / Episode Start 00:26 Sector Drawdown &amp; Pad Explosion 02:51 SpaceX Insider Hedging Explained 08:16 Connectivity vs Compute Revenue 12:29 AST SpaceMobile Short Interest 16:52 Basis Risk in the SpaceX Model 23:11 Japan 700 MHz Spectrum Win 25:30 The J-LEO Project &amp; Rakuten JV 31:33 Brazil S-Band &amp; Global Expansion 39:18 Launch Updates &amp; Block 1 Progress

Anpanman - Why SpaceX Insiders are Shorting $ASTS

AST SpaceMobile Podcast

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** AST SpaceMobile Podcast

## Transcript

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Das ist die Spacemobile Podcast. Wir haben einfach nur die Möglichkeit, die wir uns zu wissen, dass sie mit dem Einsatz von Saturn verbrechen werden. Die Möglichkeit, wir haben sehr, sehr, sehr, sehr, sehr. Hey, everyone. Thanks for joining.

I wanted to fire up a space to talk about the SpaceX hedging impact on the space sector. This is obviously a topic that people are very interested in. And of course, there's plenty of folks wondering why the space sector is completely derated from the end of May,

which was kicked off by Blue Origin New Glenn, the New Glenn 4 rocket hot fire test that caused an explosion and destruction of Blue Origin's launch pad at 36, SLC 36. And so from that event, you've seen space stocks just completely derate. I think AST in particular has had a 49% peak to trough drawdown thus far.

49% as of the low today, which was around 67, 87. So it's a pretty severe drawdown relative to historic ones. But in these with these drawdowns, you typically have some bottoming process and then a bounce. And I was commenting to some people earlier today that no matter what positive news comes out in the space sector, none of those stocks have really reacted.

And so I've seen positive news come out from AST, of course, Rocket Lab, Planet. There's any number of companies that have announced some positive news, whether it's related to defense contracts or other businesses, business that's been won. But it doesn't really matter. The sector has continued to just trade down. And part of that, I think, of course, is some amount of liquidity drain.

And so people selling space stocks, maybe some of the fast money had owned space stocks for the trade into the SpaceX IPO and then sold and then purchased SpaceX, which if they if they did in recent days, they're probably aren't happy with that trade. And just given that SpaceX, I guess, traded to as high as 220 or so.

And now it's at 158, which, you know, SpaceX is going to be a very volatile name, just given although the float is big in terms of dollar size, it is a very small percent of the entire company that's public right now, which is around 5 percent. Or actually, it's slightly higher than 5 percent, given that the extra side is a green shoe. But what important dynamic that I think requires a bit more drilling down into is the impact of SpaceX insiders hedging. Right.

And so this became a bit more, I guess I became a bit more acute to the problem when I was talking with Cook and I think he has ...

Anpanman - Why SpaceX Insiders are Shorting $ASTS

Transcript

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Anpanman - Why SpaceX Insiders are Shorting $ASTS

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.