SpaceX might be the biggest IPO ever but there’s a math problem no one’s pricing in. Once you factor in capital gains, you need to believe it’ll underperform the market by ~50% just to justify selling. That creates an invisible floor under mega-cap stocks and a market increasingly detached from reality. Meanwhile: Allbirds goes from $4B to $40M and pivots to “NewBird AI.” Seed valuations hit $175M — 3x YoY, above 2021 peak. And AI labs are allegedly planting stories on each other. This week on More or Less: SpaceX’s $19B revenue / $5B losses, the AI bubble, Anthropic $800B rumors, and why fund math is breaking Chapters: 0:00 — Waymo vs. Uber: the autonomous tipping point 8:29 — Allbirds: $4B → $40M → “NewBird AI” 12:56 — Boom Supersonic and the data center pivot 15:17 — SpaceX IPO: bulls vs. bears 16:14 — The tax problem no one is pricing in 20:16 — Can mega-cap still 50x?26:47 — SpaceX breakdown: Starlink vs. launch 28:20 — Anthropic $800B rumors 30:08 — OpenAI vs. Anthropic: leaks and competition 31:08 — The model switching problem (no real moat) 33:36 — AI behavior shift: “ask the agent” 38:17 — AI labs running oppo research 40:05 — Seed valuations surpass 2021 peak42:00 — Fund math is broken We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/FQ5TEs_3Dq8Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

More or Less

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** More or Less

## Transcript

[SPEAKER_A] that all the money and returns will pool up in nonprofits because for-profits get so whacked on making smart allocations. But it's funny, because for me, you're like, do you hold or sell SpaceX? It's actually not a question, is it worth $1.5 trillion? You have to ask yourself, is it worth $750M, right? And that's like a very different question, right?

[SPEAKER_B] Like, more or less, is it no or is it yes? We'll debate the tax that's best when we get more <LYRICS>More or Less.

[SPEAKER_C] Dave and Brit plus Sam and Jess put it all right to the test.

[SPEAKER_B] More or Less.</LYRICS> Hi friends, welcome to More or Less. Brit's trying to do some triage on our sound and I just started.

[SPEAKER_C] Here's what's happening.

[SPEAKER_A] I was trying to start the episode in a Waymo, which would've been awesome, but you guys were late.

[SPEAKER_C] Well, okay, Sam is on, by the way, not even wireless headphones right now, full wired. Like 2005 called Sam and it wants its headphones back. No, this is the new thing, Brit.

[SPEAKER_A] You're so fucking behind. Everyone's back to work.

[SPEAKER_C] Your microphone is dangling in the wind as you make your way into your office.

[SPEAKER_A] I don't have a, I don't have access to my office. I never go to it, so I don't know how to get in. And so I'm waiting on the street for someone to let me in.

[SPEAKER_B] Okay. So we're gonna do a little laying, setting the scene, but dear listeners, we promise we have a great episode for you. Cuz by the way, and Dave's not here, by the way. Is there still— Well, that was gonna be part of my scene setting. Okay.

[SPEAKER_C] Setting the scene.

[SPEAKER_B] Before we brace for an episode of AI bubble talk, SpaceX financials revealed, and so much more. I have to give you a lay of the land. So Brit looks like she is polished in a cardigan somewhere, very put together. Would that be right?

[SPEAKER_C] Yes, I am in my office, which I did not have trouble getting into because I come every day.

[SPEAKER_B] Sam is stranded on the street, hair very, you know, sexually blowing in the wind.

[SPEAKER_C] Sexily?

[SPEAKER_B] Wired headphones and a glare.

[SPEAKER_A] Yeah, which is all the kids are back to. I'm stuck outside my office. I don't know how to get into my office. And that's just how it is. But someone will eventually let me in. The people who work in this office claim that they went for a walk. I think they're in their apartments running to the office to let me in.

[SPEAKER_B] Yeah, I think that was a work from home day until the boss showed up.

[SPEAKER_A] And in fairness to them, it's a very rare occurrence. So they really— they're not wrong. They're just wrong this one time.

[SPEAKER_B] They went for a walk. I love this.

[SPEAKER_A] That's literally what they told me.

[SPEAKER_B] I just landed in Austin where, guys, there is no Waymo. And this is the first time I've experienced Waymo wi...

Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.