The Global FX team discusses take-aways from a mixed employment report as well as the outlook for yen, GBP and EMEA EM with focus on HUF. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Michael Harrison, Emerging Markets Strategy This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5351150-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX: Payrolls prognosis, yen, GBP and HUF

At Any Rate

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** At Any Rate

## Transcript

Hello and welcome to J.P. Morgan's At Any Rate podcast. I'm Meera Chandan, co-head of FX Strategy here at J.P. Morgan, joined by Arandam Sandhilea, who's our other co-head of FX Strategy joining us from Singapore. And then we have a senior strategist joining us from the DM side, James Naligan and EM side as well, Mike Harrison, with a specialty in Semia Local Markets. So, well, we're recording on a Thursday. We'll be putting this out on Friday. We've had payrolls report just come out.

And I have to say it feels like a mixed bag here. Something for everyone. Arandam, what do you think? Arandam Sandhilea, Yeah, very much so. Clearly the data is on the weak side. So unlike this time last month, the data gave it and now the data is taken away from our dollar call. So just looking at the headline, pretty clear that we've had a downside miss.

Our economists have been hinting at the idea that the three-month moving average of NFP around 188k last month was probably overstating the strength of the job market. And that number has now come down to 111k after today's report. I think that's probably closer to the true reflection of the strength of the labor market, which our economists have been pegging at around 100k jobs added per month. You know, there were some notable distortions in the data.

So last month, for example, we got a bump out of the leisure and hospitality sector. This year you had a net contraction of 61k jobs in that very same sector. There is some noise in the market about whether this is related to World Cup-related hiring. Our economists don't think so. They think this has got probably more to do with seasonal adjustment issues around summertime job creation.

But be that as it may, I think the other notable part of the report was the slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2k, unexpectedly so. But this again comes alongside the drop in the participation rate. So this is not an unalloyed positive either in terms of your reading of the report. So net net, you know, can't really blame the rates market for doing what it did. It took back five to six basis points of rate hikes out of July pricing. So I'm guessing that a July Fed hiked that.

You know, somewhat surprisingly to me, several people had mentioned to us on our mid-year outlook marketing trail. Now looks more or less off the table at this stage. You know, December 26 pricing has also fallen below 30 basis points. The dollar has followed suit. So we're down about what between 0.8 to 1% versus most of the majors. You know, the point that we have been making on the dollar is that, you know, this call was data dependent all along. The data sometimes zigs before it zags.

It was never likely to be a complete straight line path high on the DXY and so it has proven. But I think on the whole, I still have conviction on the house call that the US labor market is on a strengthening path. I think along with sticky information, ...

Global FX: Payrolls prognosis, yen, GBP and HUF

Transcript

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Global FX: Payrolls prognosis, yen, GBP and HUF

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.