Today&#x27;s Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&amp;P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content. 00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville 00:44 Market Close Recap 01:36 AI CapEx and GDP 02:59 Yield Curve Steepening 04:38 Senate Polling Outlook 07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds 09:06 Housing Affordability Chart 10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole 11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts 12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - August 17, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

Welcome to The Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well hello and welcome to the Monday edition of The Dividend Cafe. I'm your host David Bahnsen. We're gonna jump right into it. I have just arrived at my hotel in Charlottesville, Virginia and I want to bring you the trip around the horn. We'll cover all the normal basics.

Markage just closed a short while ago. First, if you missed the Friday Dividend Cafe, it was a bit off subject, but it sort of explains why I'm in Charlottesville, Virginia right now. Wrote a letter to my daughter Sadie. You have the video, you have the podcast, the written Dividend Cafe, all there, dividendcafe.com. If you are interested, I really appreciated the substantial amount of you that wrote with such nice and encouraging words. It meant a great deal to me.

As far as today's action, the market's futures pointed to a downward open in the Dow, but up in the S&P and NASDAQ, and we opened that way. But actually the Dow opened down about 100 points, but then all three indexes went to the negative after opening. The only sector that closed up today, there were 10 sectors that were negative.

The worst being communication services, the cousin of technology was down about one and a half percent, but energy was up almost one percent, 87 basis points to the upside. The Dow was down 273 points on the day, about half a percent. The S&P was down more or less the same, a tiny bit more, half a percent. The NASDAQ was down about a third of a percent.

Monday - August 17, 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Monday - August 17, 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.