In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the 10-year Treasury moving above 5%, rising oil and diesel prices, persistent inflation, and the latest Fed commentary. We also dig into growing resistance around the AI buildout, from wider spreads on AI-related debt to Texas pausing state-issued data center permits. In Digging Through the Data, we compare Marriott- and Hilton-flagged hotels to see what’s really driving loan performance. We also cover a $180 million student housing refinancing, a dramatic Chicago office appraisal decline, BREIT’s proposed $1.71 billion industrial refinancing, two highly occupied malls facing very different financing outcomes, and a Hyatt loan entering special servicing. Tune in now. Episode notes: Intro Economic Update Diesel Prices &amp; Fed Commentary AI Debt &amp; Data Center Pushback Marriott &amp; Hilton Hotel Loans Student Housing &amp; Office Stories Industrial, Retail &amp; Lodging Programming Notes &amp; Shoutouts Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

424. The Numbers Need Context: 5%+ Treasury Yields, AI Roadblocks, and Hotel Distress 

The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

[SPEAKER_02] Welcome to the TreppWire Podcast, the show where commercial real estate meets data and insights. This is our week in review for the week ending September 25th, 2026. I'm Haley Keen with Trepp, a data, modeling, and analytics firm for the CMBS, commercial real estate, and CLO markets. I'm with Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer, and Stephen Bushbaum, Head of Applied Research and Analytics. The market has given us plenty to discuss since last week's Fed rate hike.

[SPEAKER_02] On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1% during trading after a strong reading on business activity, while Fed Governor Michael Barr said further rate increases are likely to be needed. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also warned that inflation is spreading beyond energy and tariffs. Oil is back above $100 a barrel, and the administration is weighing how to respond to high diesel prices.

[SPEAKER_02] On today's episode, we'll also look at two sides of the AI build-out. Corporate bond buyers are demanding more compensation to absorb a wave of AI-related borrowing, while Texas has paused new state-issued data center permits pending a grid audit. Later, our Property and Credit Stories of the Week will raise a question that runs through the week's episode. When a building is busy or well-occupied, how much does that tell us about the income available to support its debt? We'll also do a

[SPEAKER_02] digging through the data segment on Marriott and Hilton-flagged hotels. Together, they represent more than 40% of the securitized lodging balance in Trepp's latest research, but their loan performance tells two different stories. Stephen, where do we start this week?

424. The Numbers Need Context: 5%+ Treasury Yields, AI Roadblocks, and Hotel Distress

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

424. The Numbers Need Context: 5%+ Treasury Yields, AI Roadblocks, and Hotel Distress

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.