Wednesday 7th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&amp;P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a &quot;golden rule&quot; deficit reduction plan to stabilize public finances. The pair also explore the broader macro drivers, including crude oil holding below $100/bbl despite Middle East supply bottlenecks, hawkish inflation warnings from Fed officials, German factory order slumps, and a widening US trade deficit ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Le Pen Is Mightier Than the Deficit

NAB Morning Call

[SPEAKER_00] French bond yields pull back a bit, maybe because Marine Le Pen has an answer for those concerned about the government's budget deficit there. Confidence in markets generally today, it's fair to say. The S&P hit a new high. Oil isn't moving too much. And a relatively quiet session ahead, we get the FRMC minutes, which might prove interesting if we're looking to see where the Fed goes next. It's Wednesday. It's the 7th of October, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning.

[SPEAKER_00] So a bit of a fall in the US dollar this morning. That's held the Aussie up 0.2%, but still sitting just below 70 US cents. The euro has seen the biggest rise. It's up a third of 1%. US stocks are pushing higher, up 0.6% for the S&P and the Nasdaq. Shares higher in Europe as well. The DAX is up 0.8%, half a percent for the euro stocks, 50. Bond yields are falling down four basis points for 10-year treasuries and for UK 10-year guilts.

[SPEAKER_00] In France, 10-year yields are down 11 basis points this morning. And oil rising slightly. Bren is hovering just above $100 a barrel now. And here's NAB's Gavin Friend in London. I mean, you could say there's a tiny bit more risk sentiment looking at those numbers, couldn't you, today? Well, I mean, the S&P, for example, hit a new high this morning. But there's no news to support any of this. Is it just lack of bad news, perhaps, that's giving this confidence?

[SPEAKER_01] Yeah, I guess. Morning, Phil. Good to be with you. You make the point about the S&P. Fresh all-time highs. The first since August. I think there are a number of little sort of minor contributive factors.

Le Pen Is Mightier Than the Deficit

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Le Pen Is Mightier Than the Deficit

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.