Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI&#x27;s proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh&#x27;s remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

The Morning Market Briefing

Hey everybody, welcome to the Morning Market Briefing. It's Thursday, July 2, 2026. Hope you're doing well. No call tomorrow. The 4th of July is observed on the 3rd by the market. So the office is closed. Hope you guys have big weekend plans. We'll get to those at the end. We also need a recap from Chief European Correspondent Ben Nye on his World Cup experience from yesterday here in Atlanta. So got to do some international reporting locally.

But opening up, let's talk ISM Manufacturing. I am getting a text that I need to respond to, Ben. Sorry, do you mind jumping in? Yeah, Hicks, if we can pull up the chart on the ISM Manufacturing number. Essentially, it was pretty much as expected. I don't actually know where the estimates were, but that's basically where we had our estimates. We thought it was going to be a little bit down from last month.

But, and that's basically what the other surveys had suggested. Yes, Tom? Estimate was 53.9. Came in at 55.7. So. Came in at 53.3. Hmm. Oh, no, I got it backwards. 55.7 was the survey. Actual 53.9. 55.7? That's what I'm seeing. It was ridiculous. I'm looking at S&P Global. I'm off by one line. Sorry. 53.9, 53.3. Okay. Still 53.

You can't have S&P Global Manufacturing PMI come in and be on the next line up from ISM on Bloomberg. Who designed this thing? The manufacturer, but regardless, I mean, it was as I anticipated and as probably most people are actually reading the data. If you just have a GARCH model that's modeling the ISM Manufacturing, maybe it comes at 53.9.

ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.