Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI&#x27;s proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh&#x27;s remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST: http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

The Morning Market Briefing

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**Podcast:** The Morning Market Briefing

## Transcript

Hey everybody, welcome to the Morning Market Briefing. It's Thursday, July 2, 2026. Hope you're doing well. No call tomorrow. The 4th of July is observed on the 3rd by the market. So the office is closed. Hope you guys have big weekend plans. We'll get to those at the end. We also need a recap from Chief European Correspondent Ben Nye on his World Cup experience from yesterday here in Atlanta. So got to do some international reporting locally.

But opening up, let's talk ISM Manufacturing. I am getting a text that I need to respond to, Ben. Sorry, do you mind jumping in? Yeah, Hicks, if we can pull up the chart on the ISM Manufacturing number. Essentially, it was pretty much as expected. I don't actually know where the estimates were, but that's basically where we had our estimates. We thought it was going to be a little bit down from last month.

But, and that's basically what the other surveys had suggested. Yes, Tom? Estimate was 53.9. Came in at 55.7. So. Came in at 53.3. Hmm. Oh, no, I got it backwards. 55.7 was the survey. Actual 53.9. 55.7? That's what I'm seeing. It was ridiculous. I'm looking at S&P Global. I'm off by one line. Sorry. 53.9, 53.3. Okay. Still 53.

You can't have S&P Global Manufacturing PMI come in and be on the next line up from ISM on Bloomberg. Who designed this thing? The manufacturer, but regardless, I mean, it was as I anticipated and as probably most people are actually reading the data. If you just have a GARCH model that's modeling the ISM Manufacturing, maybe it comes at 53.9. But if you actually use the data that has come in over the past three weeks, we knew that it was going to be a little bit softer. Part of that was driven by prices.

Prices came down a lot, 82.1 to 73. Part of that was driven by a little bit decline in new orders, but employment was up. But just really quickly on the new orders, though, it was interesting because we've risen from a ratio of 1.6 positive comments to negative comments to 2.7 positive comments to negative comments. So a lot of neutrals, but the positives are definitely outweighing the negatives by quite a bit.

So I wouldn't read too much into the slight decline in new orders. I mean, I think everything is pretty solid there. And on the employment side, there's more hiring that's taking place on the manufacturing side of the economy. We'll get into the services side of the economy here in a minute, but I think the biggest positive there is the prices coming down. And they say, number one, it's still high because of the steel and aluminum prices. But again, that's starting to fade out.

Tariffs that, again, are starting to fade out. And petroleum-based products, which, again, are starting to fade out. So I think pretty solid on the manufacturing side of the economy based on this survey and really mostly in line with what we have thought given the Philly Fed, the Dallas Fed, the Richmond Fed, the New Yo...

ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

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ISM Manufacturing Improves + OpenAI Wants to Give the US Government 5% of the Company | July 2, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.