Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back on this Macro Monday episode to discuss why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks; Mikkel digs into why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea, and Andreas lays out the trades he likes right now in the current macro regime. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning 05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On 10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation 13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected 18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook? 19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain 22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem 24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early 26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It 29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Inflation Is Cooling, So Why Is the Fed Running Hot? | Macro Mondays

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Summertime is maybe good, Summertime is maybe shit. It's Macro Mondays, Pick your screen, Macro Mondays. Hello, Art Bearer. Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays.

My name is Miguel Rosemol. I'm your show as usual. And I'm your host as usual on this show. And I'm joined, of course, by my partner in crime, Andreas Steno. So Andreas, I want to get right to it because this has been on my mind since earlier today when you and I were in the office. We were heading out for lunch and you looked at me and said, this was back when you were actually in the office. You've obviously gone home now. I'm still in the office. But you looked at me and you said,

Miguel, we're going Goldilocks. Are we going Goldilocks, Andreas? I think so. And I mean, the probability is clearly increasing, which is very, very odd at this stage of the business cycle. And let me just for clarity reiterate what Goldilocks actually means. It means that inflation is coming down while growth is recovering. It's a fairly rare mix, economically speaking, late in the cycle.

But it's probably here due to a range of technicalities around inflation that we can discuss in detail on this show. But yeah, sure. I mean, we watch this on a daily basis in our now casting and the probability of us entering a Goldilocks regime has risen over the past month. And we're getting there. It's the second most likely regime by now. And it would wrong foot a lot of pundits if we get there, especially those who have banged the drum on inflation due to the Iran war over and over and over.

Inflation Is Cooling, So Why Is the Fed Running Hot? | Macro Mondays

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Inflation Is Cooling, So Why Is the Fed Running Hot? | Macro Mondays

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.