EP038: AI's Next Surprise Inflection–Construction Rentals? With Jarrett Harris from Iron Advisor Insights

Jarrett Harris, from Iron Advisor Insights was my go to person for industrial channel checks when I was at Citadel and Millennium. He’s from Peoria, IL, the original HQ of Caterpillar ($CAT) and spends his days talking to heavy equipment dealers. He is now part of Iron Connect, a dealer wholesale network with proprietary data that gives me an edge on when the heavy equipment cycles are inflecting.
After catching-up with Jarrett in this episode, it is likely we are seeing early signs of a price inflection for rental equipment potentially impacting: $URI, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI
"The data center build out is reshaping everything."
“Supply versus demand is normalized and is now edging toward scarcity rather than abundance."
"We've started to get more indications that rental rates are going higher."
"We're starting to hear more people in the used equipment market that are hoarding equipment."
“north of 80% of the equipment on their site was selling within two weeks. If I go back to September of ‘25, it was about 30%.”
Stocks:$URI, $CAT, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI
*Not Investment Advice
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[00:00:00] Introduction and highlights.
[00:00:25] Jarrett Harris introduces Iron Advisor Insights and its field research approach.
[00:01:44] Building a research business focused exclusively on heavy equipment and industrial machinery.
[00:03:48] How dealer, contractor, supplier, and equipment data are combined to identify industry trends.
[00:04:55] The machinery manufacturers and rental companies covered by Iron Advisor Insights.
[00:05:39] Why Caterpillar and equipment rentals are at the center of investor conversations.
[00:07:04] How AI data centers are changing construction demand and equipment utilization.
[00:09:39] Equipment supply, lead times, pricing, and the shift from abundance toward scarcity.
[00:12:09] Caterpillar's growing role in powering AI data centers.
[00:15:09] Why Caterpillar's dealer network creates a competitive advantage.
[00:17:19] Used equipment markets, dealer inventory, and signs of tightening supply.
[00:20:14] Rental rate trends and early indications of improving pricing power.
[00:21:55] How dynamic pricing is changing the equipment rental industry.
[00:24:09] EquipmentShare's impact on competition and rental pricing strategies.
[00:26:44] Why rental companies may be approaching an important pricing inflection point.
[00:28:38] How large data center projects are influencing equipment demand and contractor behavior.
[00:30:12] Geographic expansion of data center construction across North America.
[00:31:51] Comparing pricing between new and used construction equipment.
[00:33:07] Dealer inventory strategies and growing conviction around future equipment demand.
[00:35:33] Investor sentiment toward AI-driven construction versus broader economic activity.
[00:36:17] Infrastructure spending and improving conditions in construction markets.
[00:39:50] The long-term growth outlook for equipment rentals and OEM-backed rental fleets.
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Iron Advisor Insights Links:Jarret Harris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jarrettharris/Iron Advisors Insights: https://ironconnect.com/