This week, our Global FX Strategists respond to clients’ FAQs following mid-year outlook discussions. We also preview next week’s payrolls print for the dollar, and reflect on recent developments in CNY, GBP &amp; CHF. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5329700-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook pushbacks, payrolls, CNY, GBP

At Any Rate

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** At Any Rate

## Transcript

[SPEAKER_A] Hello and welcome to J.P. Morgan's At Any Rate podcast. This is Meera Chandan, Co-Head of FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan, joined today by my partner and Co-Head of FX Strategy from Singapore, Arindam Sandilya, and then Patrick Locke and James Nelligan, Senior FX Strategists in New York and London. So we've been talking to a lot of our clients about our mid-year outlook this week, having published last week. So thank you for the great discussions that we've had. And you know what I wanted to start off this particular podcast with is just talking about a few questions that came up, frequently asked questions that I think are just worth clarifying on, you know, some of these questions. And by the way, as you know, just to set the stage, you know, the view that we've been actually painting for FX is a bullish beta, meaning bullish on carry and a bullish dollar. View. So we think, you know, we think carry can do well. FX carry can do well, particularly and especially if it's a non-dollar funded carry in a variety of Fed outcomes. And then we also have a bullish dollar bias and we've been lowering our sights on euro-dollar towards 1.10, dollar-yen to the mid-1.60s. So the questions and the pushbacks we've had basically is firstly, are we blowing, overblowing really the possibility of Fed hikes? Yes, 9 out of the 18 members are hawkish, but only 3 were probably voters. So does this Does this dot pivot, so to speak, even matter? And then, of course, you know, if 1.5 Fed hikes are already priced in, so the market's pretty much already there, why be bullish? The dollar now has a risk-reward, you know, change. And is it still attractive? Can CNY continue to do well in particular? Can high yielders actually hold up if the Fed is hiking? You know, that's a central tenet to our view. And then finally, with oil prices actually coming off as quickly as they are, Can central banks deliver less? And does that mean that actually this reduces the odds of a Fed hike? So I think all of these very valid questions, and I'm just going to highlight some of my main observations here on this and then maybe open it up to the team to see if we get any pushback or any agreement on this. But, you know, starting with the first issue of, you know, does the Fed dot pivot matter even though only 3 were voters, I think I think it does matter. It's the direction of travel that matters. And the point that Bruce Kasman has been making is that the economic breakevens, so to speak, for the Fed are pretty low in the sense that the unemployment, you know, the unemployment rate forecast that the Fed has for the end of the year is 4.3%. JPMorgan's forecast is 4.1%. So we're actually looking for a tighter labor market than what the Fed is projecting at the moment. And then secondly, actually, the run rate on core PCE needs to be 0.22% month on month or below for the rest of the year to actually match the Fed forecast. The 6-m...

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook pushbacks, payrolls, CNY, GBP

Transcript

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Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook pushbacks, payrolls, CNY, GBP

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.