July 28, 2026 – Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine a different way to understand the AI boom: not simply as a technology cycle, but as a debt-financed real estate and infrastructure buildout. They discuss data centers, construction lags, rapidly depreciating assets, hyperscaler debt, and what could happen if demand growth slows after the supply has already been built. They also cover falling oil and metals prices, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, Apple’s valuation, opportunities in Japan, and the continued unwind across memory and semiconductor stocks.

What If AI Is Really a Real Estate Cycle?

Know Your Risk Podcast

The market is pricing AI as a technology cycle when its actual anatomy is that of a credit-driven real estate cycle.

These are thought to be materially accurate and actual performance may differ. As always, please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. Please seek advice from a licensed professional. And we are back with another edition of the Daily Dots. And I am joined as always by the brain trust himself, Mr. Chase Taylor. I'm coming from the home studio. Looks a little different than the typical backdrop.

But anyway, I'd say a lot to get to, but that feels like kind of a broken record. Why don't we start with the rundown and then obviously, I'm sure oil will probably come up at some point. Yeah, I look forward to the days where it doesn't have to. No, dude, hold on. Before you get started, no kidding. I keep having these conversations with clients. They're like, Zach, what are you thinking? And I'm like, it's a one-trick pony, guys. You know what I mean?

Until the situation is resolved, it's not. And until it's not, unfortunately, it matters a lot. So. Yeah, there you go. So S&P closed up 0.24. I will note equal. It was awesome today. New high up 1.17. But the Q is down 1%. Small cap is only up 0.16. All World XUS was down 0.56. $1.06 was down basically 0.09.

So essentially flat. Mag7 was up 0.68. So a little bit of a bounce back there. A lot of that being Apple, Microsoft, although Google had a decent day. Rates down four basis points are kind of across the board.

What If AI Is Really a Real Estate Cycle?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

What If AI Is Really a Real Estate Cycle?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.