WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below. This week we provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a “peace deal” having been reached between the U.S. and Iran. We recorded this on Wednesday, June 17, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday, June 19. We think these comments will hold up even if there are any unexpected developments prior to Saturday publication. If not, we will follow up on Twitter-X and LinkedIn. 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Lee Raymond – Greatest CEO of My Career 4:24 SoH Crisis – Big Picture Thoughts On Oil Markets 8:07 SoH Crisis – Crude Oil S/D 19:12 War &amp; Peace – USA vs Iran 21:38 Long-Term Energy Macro Implications 25:55 WWLRD If He Was An Active CEO Now? 31:10 On A Personal Note – A New Top Life Moment 📜 Credits * Intro &amp; Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato. * This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. ⚖️Disclaimer I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

EP218: WWLRD and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Super-Spiked Podcast

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Super-Spiked Podcast

## Participants

- **Arjun Murti** (Veriten)

## Transcript

Hi, it's Arjun. We want to provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a peace deal having been reached between the United States and Iran. Now, we're recording this on Wednesday, June 17th, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday the 19th. We think these comments are going to stand the test of time, given we are, as usual, taking a longer-term view.

But if there are unexpected developments that occur on Friday or prior to our Saturday publication, we'll follow up on Twitter, X, LinkedIn, and other channels like that. We're actually going to start this video on a personal note. And while in Houston last week, we received the sad news that Exxon's legendary CEO, Lee Raymond, had passed away recently.

We have regularly highlighted him in Super-Spiked via our What Would Lee Raymond Do series, which first started in October of 2022. And if it's okay for an analyst to have a CEO as the hero, for me, it was the one and only Lee Raymond. He was larger than life, scary as hell, and I was going to say one of the greatest CEOs of all time in any industry, but certainly the traditional energy sector.

There is no CEO or executive that has had a more meaningful impact on myself as an analyst and how I view the sector, how I view corporate strategy in the general environment than Lee Raymond. There were other great CEOs from especially the early part of my career.

I'm thinking of Lou Noto of Mobile, Ken Durr of Chevron, Cor Hickstetter of Royal Dutch Shell, and frankly, the initial incarnation of John Brown as CEO of BP. People might remember the latter years and the more recent history, but that initial incarnation of John Brown was a phenomenal incarnation. And I'm going to say Mr. Raymond stands apart from all those great leaders.

If I was to use a sports analogy, you have the Michael Jordans, you have the Babe Ruths, you have the Wayne Gretzky's. Lee Raymond was that in terms of CEOs for traditional energy. At his core, Lee Raymond fought for the criticality of producing more energy, which is the prerequisite to economic growth and to use a modern phrase, bettering human lives.

If there is a fundamental choice between Lee Raymond's worldview versus those in the de facto degrowth climate crisis camp, I side with Lee full stop. His legacy will live on through all that we do at SuperSpike. In our October 2022 series, What Would Lee Raymond Do?, we highlighted five key lessons that we would apply to corporate strategy today.

I think the first is companies should stop using oil price guesses to justify growth capex. Now, if we were to update this for today, I don't think that's happening, but there is always this notion of what do you believe oil prices should be? And none of that was the philosophy of how Lee Raymond ran Exxon back in the day. Using a conservative oil deck is certainly better than usi...

EP218: WWLRD and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Transcript

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EP218: WWLRD and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.