In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire and examine whether the energy shock has already left its mark on upcoming inflation data. We analyze Jamie Dimon&#x27;s annual shareholder letter and its warnings on geopolitics, AI, and banking regulations. We share highlights from our Trepp banking webinar on CRE lending trends and private credit dynamics, then dive into our Q1 2026 CMBS issuance data, including a 76% surge in CRE CLO volume and rising office concentration in conduit deals. We also walk through a CMBS appraisal reduction trigger 101, cover Empire State Realty Trust&#x27;s sale of a Midtown Manhattan office building, the biggest LA office lease of 2026 tied to the 2028 Summer Olympics, and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond&#x27;s recent acquisitions. Tune in now. Episode notes: Economic Update: Iran Ceasefire, Oil Shock &amp; Inflation Outlook (2:12) Petrodollar System &amp; De-dollarization Risk (7:46) Jamie Dimon&#x27;s Shareholder Letter: Geopolitics, AI &amp; Bank Regulations (10:51) Bank CRE Lending Trends &amp; Private Credit Dynamics (15:52) Q1 2026 CMBS Issuance: Records, CRE CLO Surge &amp; Office Comeback (23:52) Appraisal Reduction 101: CMBS Triggers Explained (30:50) Office: Empire State Realty Trust Sells Midtown Building to Namdar (36:26) Office: On Location Signs Biggest LA Office Lease of 2026 for 2028 Olympics (39:39) Retail: Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Acquires Lumber Liquidators&#x27; Parent Company (41:58) Programming Notes (45:55) Shoutouts (47:43) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

388. Strait Talk: Oil Shock, CMBS Issuance and Private Credit Signals, Appraisal Reduction 101

The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

## Transcript

Welcome to The TreppWire Podcast, the show where commercial real estate meets data and insights. This is our Week in Review for the week ending April 10, 2026. I'm Haley Keen, a data, modeling, and analytics firm for the CMBS, commercial real estate, and CLO markets. I'm with Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer, and Stephen Bushbaum, Head of Applied Research and Analytics. It has been a busy week. A ceasefire between the US and Iran sent oil plunging more than 12% intraday.

With WTI crude falling below 95 after trading above 112 just a day earlier. Stocks surged, stocks surged, yields dropped, and the mood shifted fast. But the macro calendar is stacked. February PCE comes out this week, along with March CPI and Michigan sentiment. And these are the first inflation prints that capture the energy shock. Heading in, Wall Street was bracing for headline CPI north of 0.8% month over month, which could push the annual rate above 3%.

For the first time in over a year. Last Friday's jobs report added another wrinkle, with 178,000 jobs added versus roughly 60,000 expected. Though nearly half of that was Kaiser Permanente's workers coming back from a strike. Wages cooled to 3.5% year over year. And Fed funds futures are pricing in essentially no rate movement through the end of 2026.

And then layered on top of that, Jamie Dimon's shareholder letter warned about geopolitical risk and regulatory dysfunction, while we're also starting to see signs of pressure in parts of the private credit market, with rising redemption requests and tighter liquidity dynamics starting to emerge. So on today's episode, we'll unpack it all and explain what this could mean for CRE.

And we'll also dig into the latest CMBS issuance data, including signs of strength in the office market, and walk through a 101 on valuations and appraisal reductions. We'll also share several of the latest office headlines and discuss Bed Bath & Beyond's buying binge. Stephen, I know that is a lot to unpack. What are you starting with and what are you watching most closely? Well, first, I'm watching out for the truck. I don't know if you heard it, Lonnie, but that beeping sound was the headline truck backing up.

I mean, this has been a lot to digest. And that's got to have been the go of it every single week for the last couple of weeks, honestly. So for me, this week really comes down to one question. Does the ceasefire actually change the inflation trajectory? Or did the energy shock already leave a mark that's going to show up in the data regardless? And I think the answer is the damage is probably already in the pipeline. So look, oil came back down fast and that's great.

But WTI spent the better part of two weeks above 105 and 110. And ultimately, that feeds into transportation costs, input costs. Ultimately, we'll see some impacts on maybe even shelter and services with a lag. I think, h...

388. Strait Talk: Oil Shock, CMBS Issuance and Private Credit Signals, Appraisal Reduction 101

Transcript

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388. Strait Talk: Oil Shock, CMBS Issuance and Private Credit Signals, Appraisal Reduction 101

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.