EP.45 Palantir ($PLTR): Is the Leading Growth Rate Sustainable? With Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D. A. Davidson
Gil Luria and I dig into the bull case after another blockbuster quarter with 93% YoY growth. The reason Palantir wins is their head start on building an enterprise-wide ontology, unconventional usage of forward-deployed engineers in their SaaS model, and customer-aligned, outcome-based pricing. We debate $PLTR’s valuation, future growth trajectory, and AI-driven software budget crowd-out.
“Retail investors figured it out first, bid it up all the way to $200. Institutional investors were always caught a step behind, including most of the sell side.”
“The bull case is that the stocks’ valuation is now, 50x forward cash flow, not $200, 2% yield, and they're growing 90%, 93% up from 85% last quarter”
“They get to cherry pick customer, deliver results, and win. (8:24) That's when we learned over the last year.”
“This is the best software company in the world. Maybe the best company in the world.”
Stocks mentioned: $PLTR, $AI, $IBM, $MSFT, $NVDA, $SNOW, $DDOG, $CRWD, $SHOP
*Not Investment Advice. Disclosure: The author has a short position in PLTR as of the episode recording; that may change at any time.
______________________________________________________________________
Highlights:
(1:26) Palantir accelerates — 93% U.S. commercial growth and strong government demand.
(2:18) How Gil went from valuation skeptic to calling Palantir one of the world’s best companies.
(5:13) What makes Palantir different: forward deployed engineers, ontology, AI and outcome-based pricing.
(8:26) How Palantir delivers customized solutions at scale.
(9:06) Why its engineering talent and brand are hard to replicate.
(10:34) Ontology explained — mapping company data to how the business works.
(13:29) Palantir’s post-9/11 origin story and original problem.
(15:23) A 157% net retention rate and expansion within large customers.
(16:42) Why Palantir’s chief revenue officer came from a legal background.
(17:48) Gil’s valuation framework: Palantir deserves a premium to software peers.
(19:42) Why Palantir customers may be seeing unusually strong AI returns.
(21:43) Enterprise AI shifts from structured to probabilistic unstructured data.
(23:46) How AI spending is crowding out other technology budgets.
(26:48) From GPU hours to tokens to cost per task — AI economics move toward labor.
(29:10) Why AI-driven productivity could lead companies to hire more people.
(30:29) How AI compressed Gil’s research workflow from weeks to near real time.
(35:06) Gil’s AI stack and Microsoft as D.A. Davidson’s enterprise control plane.
(37:41) Are companies handing proprietary advantage to frontier AI models?
(38:38) Palantir’s sovereignty pitch and risks of relying on one frontier model.
(42:45) Why Palantir prefers model flexibility and NVIDIA’s Nemotron models.
(43:52) NVIDIA’s strategy: coordinate the AI ecosystem, not just sell chips.
(46:08) The Palantir bear case — extraordinary growth eventually decelerates.
(48:02) Why slower growth could still support a larger future cash-flow base.
(50:35) Why Gil’s Palantir estimates remain close to consensus despite his bullish view.
(52:14) The institutional-investor problem: limited revenue disclosure.
(53:49) Gil’s belief in Palantir’s mission.
(54:04) Doug summarizes the bull and bear cases: ontology, engineering, valuation, and deceleration.
______________________________________________________________________
💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/💡 Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure
Pitch The PM Links:
📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: : https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508
Gil Luria Links:DA Davidson: https://www.dadavidson.com/ Gil Luria on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gil-luria-79347a2/ Gil Luria on X: https://x.com/gilluria
“Retail investors figured it out first, bid it up all the way to $200. Institutional investors were always caught a step behind, including most of the sell side.”
“The bull case is that the stocks’ valuation is now, 50x forward cash flow, not $200, 2% yield, and they're growing 90%, 93% up from 85% last quarter”
“They get to cherry pick customer, deliver results, and win. (8:24) That's when we learned over the last year.”
“This is the best software company in the world. Maybe the best company in the world.”
Stocks mentioned: $PLTR, $AI, $IBM, $MSFT, $NVDA, $SNOW, $DDOG, $CRWD, $SHOP
*Not Investment Advice. Disclosure: The author has a short position in PLTR as of the episode recording; that may change at any time.
______________________________________________________________________
Highlights:
(1:26) Palantir accelerates — 93% U.S. commercial growth and strong government demand.
(2:18) How Gil went from valuation skeptic to calling Palantir one of the world’s best companies.
(5:13) What makes Palantir different: forward deployed engineers, ontology, AI and outcome-based pricing.
(8:26) How Palantir delivers customized solutions at scale.
(9:06) Why its engineering talent and brand are hard to replicate.
(10:34) Ontology explained — mapping company data to how the business works.
(13:29) Palantir’s post-9/11 origin story and original problem.
(15:23) A 157% net retention rate and expansion within large customers.
(16:42) Why Palantir’s chief revenue officer came from a legal background.
(17:48) Gil’s valuation framework: Palantir deserves a premium to software peers.
(19:42) Why Palantir customers may be seeing unusually strong AI returns.
(21:43) Enterprise AI shifts from structured to probabilistic unstructured data.
(23:46) How AI spending is crowding out other technology budgets.
(26:48) From GPU hours to tokens to cost per task — AI economics move toward labor.
(29:10) Why AI-driven productivity could lead companies to hire more people.
(30:29) How AI compressed Gil’s research workflow from weeks to near real time.
(35:06) Gil’s AI stack and Microsoft as D.A. Davidson’s enterprise control plane.
(37:41) Are companies handing proprietary advantage to frontier AI models?
(38:38) Palantir’s sovereignty pitch and risks of relying on one frontier model.
(42:45) Why Palantir prefers model flexibility and NVIDIA’s Nemotron models.
(43:52) NVIDIA’s strategy: coordinate the AI ecosystem, not just sell chips.
(46:08) The Palantir bear case — extraordinary growth eventually decelerates.
(48:02) Why slower growth could still support a larger future cash-flow base.
(50:35) Why Gil’s Palantir estimates remain close to consensus despite his bullish view.
(52:14) The institutional-investor problem: limited revenue disclosure.
(53:49) Gil’s belief in Palantir’s mission.
(54:04) Doug summarizes the bull and bear cases: ontology, engineering, valuation, and deceleration.
______________________________________________________________________
💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/💡 Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure
Pitch The PM Links:
📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: : https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508
Gil Luria Links:DA Davidson: https://www.dadavidson.com/ Gil Luria on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gil-luria-79347a2/ Gil Luria on X: https://x.com/gilluria
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