Wednesday 17th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB&#x27;s view remains firm that the data flow won&#x27;t give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh&#x27;s debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oil falls further, RBA holds

NAB Morning Call

A unanimous decision by the RBA and a more hawkish Fed early tomorrow morning, even though it's the first one for Kevin Walsh. And with the memorandum of understanding yet to be fully understood, of course, oil continues to fall to levels we haven't seen since the whole Gulf thing kicked off. It's Wednesday. It's the 17th of June, 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, US shares have retreated a little. The S&P is down 0.3%. The Nasdaq is down 0.6%.

But the Dow is up 0.8%, hitting another all-time high. It's like the old economy is winning today. The US dollar has fallen a little further, but so has the Aussie dollar, which is sitting at 70.7 US cents now. Bond yields have fallen further, down five basis points for 10-year Treasuries, down to 4.42%. Down two basis points for yields for German and UK 10 years. Aussie 10 years were up two basis points yesterday to 4.82%.

And oil today down a lot more. 5.9% off WTI, 5.1% off Brent, which is taking it now below 79 a barrel. It actually got down to 78.45 in this session, the lowest since early March. And here is Taylor Nugent from NAB. So there's not much to say, really, on the US-Iran ceasefire, except it's still happening. The deal will be signed. And supposedly 60 days of peace ensues.

And oil is down to, well, acceptable levels, you could almost say. Yeah, good morning, Phil. As you say, kind of oil continuing to fall as kind of, you know, optimism that there will be follow through from that announced deal. It's expected to be signed on Friday, Brent, back below $80 a barrel for the first time in three months.

Oil falls further, RBA holds

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The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Oil falls further, RBA holds

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.