Wednesday 17th June 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB&#x27;s view remains firm that the data flow won&#x27;t give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh&#x27;s debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oil falls further, RBA holds

NAB Morning Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** NAB Morning Call

## Participants

- **Phil Dobbie** (NAB)
- **Taylor Nugent** (NAB)

## Transcript

A unanimous decision by the RBA and a more hawkish Fed early tomorrow morning, even though it's the first one for Kevin Walsh. And with the memorandum of understanding yet to be fully understood, of course, oil continues to fall to levels we haven't seen since the whole Gulf thing kicked off. It's Wednesday. It's the 17th of June, 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, US shares have retreated a little. The S&P is down 0.3%. The Nasdaq is down 0.6%.

But the Dow is up 0.8%, hitting another all-time high. It's like the old economy is winning today. The US dollar has fallen a little further, but so has the Aussie dollar, which is sitting at 70.7 US cents now. Bond yields have fallen further, down five basis points for 10-year Treasuries, down to 4.42%. Down two basis points for yields for German and UK 10 years. Aussie 10 years were up two basis points yesterday to 4.82%.

And oil today down a lot more. 5.9% off WTI, 5.1% off Brent, which is taking it now below 79 a barrel. It actually got down to 78.45 in this session, the lowest since early March. And here is Taylor Nugent from NAB. So there's not much to say, really, on the US-Iran ceasefire, except it's still happening. The deal will be signed. And supposedly 60 days of peace ensues.

And oil is down to, well, acceptable levels, you could almost say. Yeah, good morning, Phil. As you say, kind of oil continuing to fall as kind of, you know, optimism that there will be follow through from that announced deal. It's expected to be signed on Friday, Brent, back below $80 a barrel for the first time in three months. We are seeing kind of, you know, trickles of information coming out. But, you know, still there's a lot of detail to be revealed.

One thing that's worth calling out, I think, is that the Wall Street Journal has reported that the deal includes waivers of sanctions that would allow Iranian oil to be sold almost immediately. And so that would include, you know, waivers of sanctions on the necessary services around banking, transportation, insurance, all of those sorts of things needed to facilitate those sales as well.

So, you know, there's potential there that, you know, that Iranian oil supply is, you know, it looks like that's going to be going to be part of the deal as well as kind of expectations that there'll be more flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah. On that front as well, in terms of expectations of kind of how quickly supply could resume, obviously there's still plenty of uncertainty around this, but there are some different comments worth calling out.

There's some reporting that one US official expects a normalization within 30 days and that there should be as many as kind of 40 to 50 transits just on that route that hugs the Omani coast by Friday. The context there is kind of ordinary pre-conflict flows to the Strait of Ha...

Oil falls further, RBA holds

Transcript

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Oil falls further, RBA holds

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.