Joe&#x27;s Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links — Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers. ⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump&#x27;s version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions. 🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably. 📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex. 🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves. 🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade. ⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

Trump Wants MORE Direct Farm Payments AND Year-Round E15 Ethanol

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Grain Markets and Other Stuff

## Participants

- **Joe Vaclavik** (Standard Grain)
- **Mackenzie** (Dear Media)

## Transcript

Morning guys, it's Thursday, June 25th, 5.23 AM Central Time. Grain markets are mixed to higher this morning. December corn futures up a half cent at 4.35 and a quarter. November soybeans up three at 11.38. July Chicago wheat up three quarters of a cent at 5.86 and a half. July Kansas City wheat up one and a half at 6.18 and three quarters. September spring wheat unchanged at 6.16 and three quarters. The president has requested more farm aid. Why don't we start there?

So President Trump is asking Congress to approve more than $11 billion in additional farm aid. The proposal includes $10 billion in temporary economic support for 2026 row and specialty crops, along with another $1.1 billion for producers impacted by freeze losses from severe winter storms in the southeast.

This funding would be in addition to the $12 billion the USDA is already distributing through the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Congressional approval is still needed for the funds. Before this latest request, the Trump administration was expected to deliver about $30.5 billion in farm aid this year.

More direct payments to farmers. More direct payments to farmers. I believe this will happen. And I think it was inevitable. And I don't think this should be a surprise to anybody. Direct payments to farmers, especially in recent years. This has always happened historically, but they've increased in recent years. The ECAP program, which was approved under the Biden administration in 2024, provided $10 billion to U.S. farmers. Last year's Farmer Bridge Assistance Program was another $11 to $12 billion.

If you go back to the coronavirus days, the CFAP program, a coronavirus food assistance program, provided $31 billion in direct payments to farmers in 2020 and 2021. So this is something that's been happening on basically an annual basis. The reason for this is that we've got massive inflation with regard to farm input costs and prices of the actual commodities that farmers sell are very low.

So this chart is actually not updated. And that red line, which is corn production cost per acre, is actually like $935 expected for 2027. Whereas corn prices are still sitting in the mid $4 range or below that for 27. So it's a very ugly economic situation for the farmer. And there are a lot of differing thoughts and opinions on this. And I wrote down a little list, and this is not in any particular order.

The midterms, Mackenzie, the president is trying to buy votes ahead of the midterms. Trump would be the first president ever to try to do that, right? Oh, of course. Yeah, he's the first one. Yeah. Yeah. So if that's your thought, I agree with you. Here's another point. Trump caused these problems. He's got these tariffs and this trade war with China. And that is true to some extent.

U.S. soybean export sales, and we rely heav...

Trump Wants MORE Direct Farm Payments AND Year-Round E15 Ethanol

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Trump Wants MORE Direct Farm Payments AND Year-Round E15 Ethanol

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.