Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected? 01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low 05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over 09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup? 12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover 14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak? 18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch 20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks 22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow? #macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026

Macro Mondays

Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit! It's Macro Mondays, big picture, clear place, dark spots, at your screen, Macro Mondays

Hello out there, welcome to Real Vision and welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikkel Rosenvold, I'm your host for this show as usual and with me I have also as usual Andreas Steno. Welcome to the show Andreas, how are you doing? Mikkel, it's like 30 minutes since we left each other at the office, I'm still good.

That's great, that's great. People can probably look past that. Andreas, I want to get straight into the frame. We have a lot of good stuff to talk about today, but everybody's eyes obviously on the inflation numbers coming out this Wednesday. So let's get straight into the frame Andreas. year over year, the market expectation is at 3.4%, slightly down from last month. What's your expectations? Let's have a number here.

Well, I can start by saying that the market has converged towards our now cost. So I can see that the headline inflation is 0.1 on the month and the core inflation is 0.2. We have a couple of zeros in our now casting. So we're still below the market, but slightly less so than a week or two ago. So in a sense, I think the market has actually converged towards our view, which is a bit of a surprise to me.

But yeah, as said, our now casting is incredibly soft again. And I think a lot of people underestimate the impact of the tariffs being paid back to corporate America, which is a big game changer to the reverse scenario that we had for most of this year and last year with tariffs being paid net-net.

Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.