Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens breaks down why his team values SpaceX at just $63 per share despite the stock soaring above $200 after its IPO. We unpack the assumptions behind SpaceX&#x27;s most ambitious bets, from reusable Starship launches to data centers in space and the company&#x27;s growing AI ambitions. Owens also explains where he thinks investors may be getting ahead of themselves, why Starlink&#x27;s opportunity could be smaller than advertised, and what milestones could ultimately justify the hype. Plus, we discuss the odds of a future Tesla–SpaceX merger and what it could mean for shareholders.

What’s SpaceX Really Worth? This Analyst Says $63 a Share 

The Rundown

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** The Rundown

## Participants

- **Zaid Admani** (Public.com)
- **Nicholas Owens** (Morningstar)
- **Nicholas Owens** (Morningstar)

## Transcript

Welcome back to The Rundown, Interview Edition. Today, I am talking to Nicholas Owens, an equity analyst over at Morningstar. Nicholas covers SpaceX, which just had a record-breaking IPO last week, and the stock continues to surge. At the time of this recording, SpaceX stock is trading above $200 a share. But Nicholas believes the actual value of the stock should be closer to $63.

So in this conversation, we get into why Nicholas is so bearish, how he actually got to that number, if space in general is overrated, and also take a look at SpaceX's AI strategy moving forward. This was a really good conversation. I think you guys are going to really enjoy it. So let's get into it. All right, guys, today we are talking to Nicholas Owens, an equity analyst from Morningstar. Nicholas, welcome to The Rundown. Thanks for having me, Zaid Admani. I'm super excited for today's conversation. We're talking SpaceX.

Your report before the IPO about SpaceX caught my attention. It caught a lot of people's attention because in your report, you said that you were assigning a value of $63 a share to SpaceX. Now, since the IPO on Friday, SpaceX stocks is just, I mean, the stock went up 19% on day one, 20% on Monday. I think it's up another 10% today on Tuesday, the day we're recording this.

Did you expect this to happen after the IPO despite your bearish outlook? Would you believe yes? Yes. Like, I think the real tension here is between what Morningstar would call an intrinsic value or fundamentally based valuation of the stock, which I can talk about.

And let's say the market for the stock, like supply and demand, you know, what you see in the stock chart. I had every reason to believe that there's a lot of enthusiasm for the stock, for Elon Musk companies in general. And, you know, the way the IPO price was set with a relatively small flow, I fully expect it to sort of stay high here for a while.

And we can even talk really about what the differences are between what I view and let's say what the market seems to be pricing in. But, yeah, it's the market was prying for this stock to go up. That doesn't surprise me. But the real the real tension is what what are investors buying or what are they paying for at these prices? And what's what's reflected in expectations, if that makes sense? Well, what I'm surprised, though, is I'm with you.

I kind of felt the same way to the stock would rally post IPO because, you know, a lot of a lot of factors here. The small float is one of them. But the fact that like it's been kind of like a smooth ride up, right? It wasn't like a figma style where you had to jump. I don't know, 50, 60, 70 percent in the first day. It was like 20 percent, 19 percent on the first day, 20 percent on the second day. It's just slowly, slowly going up. And the fact that it...

What’s SpaceX Really Worth? This Analyst Says $63 a Share

Transcript

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Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
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What’s SpaceX Really Worth? This Analyst Says $63 a Share

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.