Shock on Wall Street as the jobs numbers stun everyone - almost everyone. It was a mess but a predictable one following the pattern we&#x27;ve been laying out. And it wasn&#x27;t just payrolls, with critical confirmation showing up all across the household survey and unemployment. Eurodollar University&#x27;s Money &amp; Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

BREAKING: The Job Market Just Went Negative

Eurodollar University

Negative payrolls. Here we are again. Big revisions to previous months. A clear downturn in the labor market after a very short upturn in it. Where have we seen this before? Well, not just last year but the year before, but also what I've been writing in our deep dive analysis. We got negative payrolls, but even more important, more dropouts in the labor force. The official unemployment rate falls, but the actual unemployment rate is exploding higher.

And yes, this is a perfectly consistent overall picture of the labor market and the health of the economy. The Fed continues to talk about resilient labor market just like it did last year. A lot of similarities to go over here. A lot of data to get into. And all of it points toward the same thing. By the numbers for the month of June, just briefly, we'll get into the numbers here and I'm going to do a little bit of a detour and commentary about the background and why we're looking at what we're looking.

And then we'll come back to the numbers again and understand better about what's really taking place in the economy. Therefore, interest rates as well as markets and then looking ahead beyond just where we are here in the early summertime of 2026. What all of this means? It helps that we've seen all this before, but by the numbers first, let's get to the numbers real quick. The establishment survey unexpectedly dropped by 23,000. Yes, a lot of that was government jobs. Private payrolls were positive, but barely for the second month in a row.

BREAKING: The Job Market Just Went Negative

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

BREAKING: The Job Market Just Went Negative

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.