J.P. Morgan Rates strategists Jay Barry and Liam Wash discuss the current rates outlook, risks to the view, and what we can glean from past episodes of Fed mid-cycle hiking campaigns. Speakers Jay Barry - Head of Global Rates Strategy Liam Wash – US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5348644-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5348215-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

US Rates: Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of hawkishness

At Any Rate

You're listening to At Any Rate, J.P. Morgan's Global Research Podcast, where we take a look at the story behind some of the biggest trends and themes in fixed income, currency, and commodity markets today. I'm your host, Jay Barry, head of global rate strategy at J.P. Morgan. And today I'm joined by my colleague, Liam Wash, who is a US rate strategist. So we are recording this podcast on Friday, June 26. And it's interesting, it's been a relatively quiet week from the data perspective.

And after Chair Warsh's hawkish debut at the FOMC meeting last week, yields have declined and we've actually priced in a little bit less Fed tightening. So we think this is a perfect opportunity to take a look at what's happening in US rates markets to see if we can draw any parallels with any other times during the modern monetary policy era. And I thought no one better to talk about it with me today than Liam. So Liam, thanks for joining. Yes, thanks, Jay, for having me. Jay, before we dig in, what's the latest views on rates markets? Now, I'm glad you asked, Liam.

So I think when we wrote our mid-year outlook last week, we made the case that we are currently in an environment where an upward slope to the money market curve makes sense. And that makes sense, particularly in the context of the news that we had out of the FOMC meeting a week and a half ago. Further from that, I would say that when we look at our valuation frameworks, intermediate yields are flagging as too low as well.

US Rates: Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of hawkishness

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

US Rates: Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of hawkishness

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.