What does CSU&#x27;s forecast say about the 2026 hurricane season? In Part 2, hurricane expert Dr. Phil Klotzbach joins Jeff O&#x27;Shaughnessy to unpack Colorado State University&#x27;s outlook, the atmospheric and ocean conditions shaping the season, and the risks that matter most for insurers. From hurricane counts to landfall uncertainty, Phil explains what forecasters are watching and why impact matters more than activity alone. For insurers, the conversation offers valuable context on the risks that could define the 2026 season.

Rethinking Hurricanes (Again) Part 2: Looking Ahead to the 2026 Hurricane Season

HSB's New Ways of Thinking

Welcome back to HSB's New Ways of Thinking. I'm Jeff O'Shaughnessy and we're talking hurricanes with Dr. Phil Klutzbeck from Colorado State University. Let's get started. So let's talk about 2026 Colorado State put out your original projection, I think in, was it May? And then just recently updated it here in June, if I got that right. So I'm curious to get your kind of overview maybe for those especially who haven't read the projection.

Yeah, so we typically put out our first forecast in early April and then we update it in early June, early July and early August. And the reason why we update the forecast is because conditions change as you would expect. You know, as you go from April to June to July to August, you know, there's changes in things like El Nino. There's changes in water temperatures in the Atlantic, changes in shear patterns.

So when we put out our first forecast in early April, we forecast a somewhat below normal hurricane season. So an average season has 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. In early April, we called for 13 storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. And then we just put out our update a couple of weeks ago with that update. We reduced the forecast to 11 storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

So overall, now we're anticipating, you know, basically effectively just a below normal hurricane season. And that is primarily due to we're anticipating quite a strong El Nino this summer and fall. And that El Nino really increasing levels of vertical wind shear and making conditions quite non conducive for hurricanes in the Atlantic. And Phil, when's the last time we saw an El Nino as strong as this one?

Rethinking Hurricanes (Again) Part 2: Looking Ahead to the 2026 Hurricane Season

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Rethinking Hurricanes (Again) Part 2: Looking Ahead to the 2026 Hurricane Season

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.