Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!? 00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets 02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening 04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70 08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil 10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough 13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail 17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite 19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run 21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season 22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online: YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinance Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram Website: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays

Macro Mondays

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Macro Mondays

## Transcript

Hello everyone and welcome to Macro Mondays here at Real Vision. I'm Andreas Steno and I'm all by myself this week as my co-host Mikkel is on vacation in Italy. And the Wi-Fi is not super strong in Tuscany where he is right now, so we'll try and make it without him this week, even though it's a big geopolitical week with the deal between the US and Iran.

Remember that this is our sneak peek into our macro research at Real Vision. This is our weekly free show out every Monday, but we also publish both a macro editorial every Monday, a geopolitical editorial every Wednesday and a portfolio editorial every Friday.

And I doubled down on my risk positive tilt in the portfolio last week, but if you want to check the exact single names in the portfolio, you need a pro subscription at Real Vision. It's been a great year for the stock portfolio and well, the stocks are flying again today with this deal between the US and Iran.

It was a very, very eventful weekend to say the least, given this deal that at some point during Sunday looked like it was ready to be signed already yesterday. We now know that the signing ceremony is planned for later this week in Switzerland. But let's see whether there will be any hiccups between now and then.

On Sunday, we obviously had an Israeli attempt to sort of derail this signing ceremony that was otherwise probably going ahead yesterday with an attack at Lebanon. And we obviously don't know whether we will see hiccups before this signing ceremony. We've obviously heard that the deal is done before, but the big change this time around is that all parties agree. So I consider it more or less a done deal. But what's actually in the deal? Maybe we should start with a discussion on that.

What we do know in terms of this memorandum of understanding between the parties is that it covers the next 60 days. So the intention is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, to allow the shipping transit to resume.

And on top of that, also allow Iran to sell its oil globally without sanctions, at least for the next 60 days. What happens after those 60 days is dependent on how the negotiations unfold from here. Let me put it like that. We do not have a clear understanding between the parties on the uranium question yet.

We do have a phrase, as far as I'm concerned, surrounding nuclear weapons. But the enriched uranium is still up in the air. And whether the U.S. will be able to get it out is one of the questions that we still do not know the full details around. We've seen a few of the hawks within the U.S. administration citing some concerns around this. Lindsey Graham is one example of it.

He explicitly refers to J.D. Vance and his negotiation team, and he wants them to ask Congress when they settle on the deals surrounding the enriched uranium. So therefore, I mean, we do have some clarity for the next 60 days, but we do not have clarity years ahead. If you ever get that in th...

Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.