Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith
Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change.
William Blair Investment Management
https://im.williamblair.com/
The Problem With Quality
https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-quality
Topics covered:
Why emerging markets are not one single trade
How AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performance
Why Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chain
The role of the US dollar in emerging market returns
Why EM index concentration is higher than many investors realize
What past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildout
How AI is changing the definition of quality investing
Why China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and risk
The long-term case for India despite high valuations
How William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciation
Why valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiples
The one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investor
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market
08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes
13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns
18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains
24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process
28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets
33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers
37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge
42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge
47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks
52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade
56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors
William Blair Investment Management
https://im.williamblair.com/
The Problem With Quality
https://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-quality
Topics covered:
Why emerging markets are not one single trade
How AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performance
Why Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chain
The role of the US dollar in emerging market returns
Why EM index concentration is higher than many investors realize
What past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildout
How AI is changing the definition of quality investing
Why China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and risk
The long-term case for India despite high valuations
How William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciation
Why valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiples
The one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investor
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market
08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes
13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns
18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains
24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process
28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets
33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers
37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge
42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge
47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks
52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade
56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors
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