In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia, Khagendra Gupta and Elisabetta Ferrara discuss recent dynamics in Euro area sovereign spreads and in particular France, seasonality in DM rate markets, cross-currency basis and UK rates markets ahead of the budget This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5465324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Global Rates: Mixed themes in European rates – Euro area sovereign spreads and France, seasonality in DM rates, cross-currency basis update and UK rate markets

At Any Rate

Hi and welcome to At Any Rate, J.P. Morgan's global research podcast series where we take a look at some of the drivers behind the biggest trends and themes across fixed income currencies and commodity markets. I'm Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan and today I'm joined by several of my colleagues, Aditya Chaudhia, Khagendra Gupta and Elisabetta Ferrara to discuss recent dynamics in Euro area sovereign spreads and in particular France, seasonality in DM rate markets, an update on cross-currency basis and UK rate markets ahead of the budget.

But I think to start with, there's clearly been a lot of focus on the substantial widening in sovereign spreads in Euro area this week, focused a little bit on Italy, Spain but particularly France with credit curves flattening over the past couple of days and we now have the 10-year France-Germany spread widening over 75 to 80 basis points since early August. And yes, upcoming budget discussions are only some fiscal uncertainty. These moves are looking pretty stark.

So, Aditya, there's a lot of focus on these moves in Euro area sovereign spreads and as I mentioned particularly France. I mean, how do you explain the recent widening and have French spreads now move too much, do you think? So, thanks Francis. Yeah, like I highlighted and I think everyone has noticed, Euro rates have had a very volatile week and especially the entry-immune spreads which are moving in quite large ranges or ranges being the wrong word,

I think in just one direction which is just widening, especially France, right? The screens are just moving every time you blink. So, yeah, a lot going on there. If I just say anecdotally, what we have noticed is there's an ongoing large liquidations of overweight carry...

Global Rates: Mixed themes in European rates – Euro area sovereign spreads and France, seasonality in DM rates, cross-currency basis update and UK rate markets

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The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Rates: Mixed themes in European rates – Euro area sovereign spreads and France, seasonality in DM rates, cross-currency basis update and UK rate markets

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.