A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first moves correctly? This week, we break down Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed&#x27;s messaging. We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:13 Forward Guidance Is Dead 08:28 Rate Volatility Returns 13:08 Why Hikes Won’t Happen 18:33 Liquidity Gets Tight 26:15 The AI Buildout Meets The Fed 35:55 The Summer Market Setup 42:39 MicroStrategy&#x27;s Market Test 46:18 Bitcoin’s AI Opportunity Cost 53:29 Crypto Needs To Adapt 01:00:46 Gold Sentiment Hits Extremes FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yGHU0SgEjUNE1cDKP280F60FsRrcBqOh/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th &amp; Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Forward Guidance

## Participants

- **Felix** (Archons Corner)
- **Quinn Thompson** (Blockworks)

## Transcript

[SPEAKER_00] We have to have a new name now. Forward Guidance is dead. So, introducing... Task Force.

[SPEAKER_04] Task Force. The market right now is pricing in two hikes by mid-2027. Their hugely hawkish pivot comes at a time when oil prices are down dramatically from their last two meetings.

[SPEAKER_02] We've got the high CPI print, peak hawkishness, forward guidance, and now everything's kind of collapsing.

[SPEAKER_00] I'm still a big believer that we're hitting peak hawkishness here, but I think volatility is going to go higher at the same time.

[SPEAKER_04] It's easy to be hawkish when stocks are at all-time highs and everything's rosy.

[SPEAKER_00] Man, this hurts! But like I know there's no way in hell that we're hiking at the end of this year. Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.

[SPEAKER_00] As always, investments and blockchain technology involve risk, terms, and conditions apply. Do your own research. All right, what's going on everybody? Welcome back to another round of Edition Forward Guidance. We are recording on the first week of the Kevin Warsh Fed. We just had the Kevin Warsh Fed first FOMC meeting this week, and we have to have a new name now.

[SPEAKER_00] Forward Guidance is dead. So introducing Task Force. I feel like that's... I don't know what you can't made this, but this is friggin' awesome.

[SPEAKER_04] That's fitting for the new hairstyles too. I just laugh when we open it, it's our pictures, and Tyler looks like an absolute meathead. And I look like a convict, I think.

[SPEAKER_03] Yeah.

[SPEAKER_04] You're saying you guys are looking better than before, so...

[SPEAKER_02] I like it. I might keep it, honestly. It's hot here in Texas.

[SPEAKER_04] It's scorching here, so it feels good. Nice, that's sweet.

[SPEAKER_00] Yeah, Forward Guidance is dead. Long live Forward Guidance. I mean, even though it's the name of our show, I think we've all been kind of stern critics of this style of monetary policy for a long time. Obviously, the dot plot was one of the main issues that I felt like I had. It was just completely useless. So it is interesting. So anyway, lots to talk about on this. Let's start from the top. Warsh just let on fire the statement. Pretty much cut like 80% of it out. Very succinct.

[SPEAKER_00] I love the ending of it. Just, the committee will deliver price stability. Mic drop. That's it. Starting with this. I'm just curious to get your guys' thoughts on Warsh's first meeting. What's in your head?

[SPEA...

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

A New Era Is Beginning In Markets | Weekly Roundup

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.