MacroVoices Erik Townsend &amp; Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They discuss the Hormuz crisis, China’s role in tempering global oil demand, and the outlook for what comes next as negotiations evolve in the middle east. https://bit.ly/4eIFMaO 🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook 📈📉: https://bit.ly/4fbzxMJ ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://secure.bigpicturetrading.com/membership/signup/fOY4YJYX 🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna 🔴 Subscribe to Erik&#x27;s Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/

MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?

Macro Voices

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Macro Voices

## Participants

- **Erik Townsend** (Macro Voices)
- **Patrick Ceresna** (Macro Voices)
- **Masil Begnan** (Big Picture Trading)
- **Rory Johnston** (Commodity Context)

## Transcript

This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices and other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna.

Macro Voices Episode 539 was produced on July 2nd, 2026. I'm Erik Townsend. Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston returns as this week's feature interview guest. Rory and I will discuss the Hormuz Crisis, China's role in tempering global oil demand, and the outlook for what comes next as negotiations evolve in the Middle East.

We're excited to introduce a show format change this week. I'll be stepping away from the post-game market wrap segment to make room for Maciel Begden to join the team. The old post-game segment will be replaced by our new and improved Macro Voices trading disc, where Patrick and Maciel will deliver a fast-paced market wrap featuring Patrick's trade of the week, fresh positioning insights from the Commitment of Traders reports, and a concise breakdown of the key markets you need to watch.

It's a new addition to Macro Voices, and I think you're really going to enjoy it. And I'm Patrick Ceresna. We saw another week of meaningful repricing across the macro markets. The S&P 500 advanced roughly 164 basis points week over week, continuing to push higher as risk assets remained firm.

But the more notable move week over week was once again in crude oil, with WTI falling another 690 basis points to 67.26, as the market continued to unwind geopolitical premium and press the downside in energy. So we've got some important moves developing here, and in our new Macro Voices trading disc segment,

Maciel and I will break down these charts in greater detail, along with the latest commitment of traders positioning to see where the crowding and the real market risks may be building. This week's feature interview guest is Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston. Eric and Rory discussed the crude oil outlook, what's really driving the latest collapse in oil prices,

whether the move really reflects fair value or forced flows, and what the physical and geopolitical backdrop means for energy markets from here and more. Erik's interview with Rory Johnston is coming up as Macro Voices continues right here at MacroVoices.com.

And now with this week's special guest, here's your host, Eric Townsend. Joining me now is Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston. Rory, straight of four moves, let's dive right in. You and I both thought that it would be nearly impossible for it to stay closed this long without a much higher price reaction. So why don't...

MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.