&quot;They will allow inflation to run hotter than they&#x27;ll admit to.&quot; James Lavish is co-founder of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter. In this episode, we discuss Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first months as Fed chair and whether the Fed is about to change how it measures inflation. We get into the inflation task force, the trimmed mean PCE, why the 2% target was always arbitrary, and how the balance sheet is quietly expanding through treasury buybacks and QE light. We also cover credit card delinquencies hitting 2008 levels, the K-shaped economy, whether the Fed is hoping AI bails them out of the debt problem, the circular AI trade, and why James is confident Bitcoin will be back at all-time highs within 12 months. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish

Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish

What Bitcoin Did

[SPEAKER_A] </LYRICS>I wouldn't want to be in Bessette's seat trying to manage all these deficits and just watch Congress continue to pile on more and more spending, have absolutely no solution for Social Security, which I've paid into all my life, and suddenly they're talking about, "Ah, we're just going to start cutting it." What do you mean cutting it? It's not even keeping up with inflation. Are you kidding me? They have a pretty big problem in front of them here, and it's obvious what the solution is. It's just how are they going to do it? What acronym are they going to put on it? And can they get away with it in a way that doesn't cause a massive spike in the separation of wealth in the short term? Another thing that's happening, Danny, is people are— they have fully 100% embraced the debt-based economy and they live on debt. The first quarter Fed, New York Fed numbers came out and credit card delinquencies, 90-day delinquencies, they're matching the 2008 levels now.

[SPEAKER_B] Let's talk about the Fed, James. I have this, it's been super interesting to see what's happened since Warsh has come in because it's not been what I expected. I don't think it's been what most people expected, but one of the most interesting parts of it that I've been watching, and I have an inkling as to what's going to happen next, is are they going to start lying to us about inflation? And when I say lying to us, we already know that CPI is a bit of a cooked number, but They've got this inflation task force now, and are they about to start sort of overtly lying about what's happening?

Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.