June 30, 2026 – Oil prices have fallen, but gasoline and refined product prices are telling a different story. Chase explains why the market may be focusing too much on crude oil and not enough on refining capacity, crack spreads, China’s role in global product supply, and why lower oil prices may not be enough to bring inflation pressure down for consumers.

Why Isn’t Gas Getting Cheaper?

Know Your Risk Podcast

Products are worth $125 a barrel, whereas oil is telling you I'm worth $69 a barrel. There's a really big difference.

All right. Welcome back to another edition of the Daily Dots. Chase Taylor Taylor flying solo with you here on a Tuesday, June 30th, the last day of June, the last day of the second quarter, and the last day of the first half. I'll go through the markets and have a little bit to say, but this is probably a pretty short one overall. S&P closed up the day 0.78.

SpaceX was up about 4% as the index inclusions near. We are drifting back higher. And then I think it's going to be trouble into the lockups, letting go of tens of billions of dollars worth of supply, if not hundreds of billions of dollars worth of supply. The queues were up 1.7%. And fun fact that I think might surprise some people, the queues were essentially flat for June. Didn't feel true.

It feels like we're up for June, but we're basically flat for the month of June. And even kind of year to date, S&P and NASDAQ gains aren't that impressive. And they're still trailing the rest of the world, despite the dollar having a pretty nice run here of late. Small caps were up half a percent. Mag7 was up 1.2%. Dollar was basically flat, up a tiny bit, but AllroadXUS was up 0.64%.

When it came to the Mag7 names, no big outliers up or down. Amazon was the only one that was actually red, but nothing was up even 3%. As far as yields went, pretty big, pretty ugly day there. You had the two year up six basis points, the 10 and the 30, both up about nine basis points.

Why Isn’t Gas Getting Cheaper?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Why Isn’t Gas Getting Cheaper?

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.