Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx. Show Notes Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/ FactSet&#x27;s Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Peter Boockvar: The AI Semi Trade is Nearing an Absolute Exhaustion Point

RiskReversal Pod

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** RiskReversal Pod

## Transcript

[SPEAKER_A] Balance your trading strategy by adding futures. CME Group helps you manage risk and capture opportunities in all market environments. Capitalize on around-the-clock access to highly liquid global futures and options markets across all major asset classes. Just visit your online broker and get started. Plug into valuable educational materials and trading tools and see what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/trading.

[SPEAKER_B] /iConnections is the largest membership-only platform for the alternative investment industry, bringing together thousands of fund managers and allocators in one powerful hub. iConnections reimagines how the industry connects through its digital offerings and premier in-person events, empowering allocators and managers to meet, build relationships, and do business anytime, anywhere. To explore more about iConnections, its events, and gain access to the members-only platform, visit iConnections.io. Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I am Dan Nathan. That is Peter Boockvar. He is the CIO of OnePointBFG Wealth Partners. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.

[SPEAKER_A] Thanks, Dan. Great to be here.

[SPEAKER_B] All right. This is a really interesting day in the stock market. You and I are recording this midday on Thursday. You are listening to this Friday morning or sometime over the weekend. I can't dictate when you listen to the podcast, but this is a good one. Peter is one of my fave, fave guests. Been on the podcast over 5.5 years, I got to say, at least a dozen times. And we appreciate your time and insights. We're going to talk about the macro. We're going to talk about the implications of the war and what that means on commodity prices. Obviously, it's oil, it's natural gas, it's all the byproducts, it's diesel, it's jet fuel. And we're starting to hear a bit of that from some of the companies that are reporting. And I know you do great work on the single-stock basis and take out a lot of great data points. And you can read about that on The Book Report. Peter writes probably a few times a day. So to me, it's one of my first reads and you keep us up throughout the day. So go check out The Boock Report. That's B-O-O-C-K Report. We're gonna talk about what's going on in semis and software. It is truly unusual, the extremes in which both of these sectors are trading at and the fact that investors can be so discerning, you know what I mean? Despite the fact that, you know, the NASDAQ 100 is like basically up 4 and a half, or it's actually up 6.5% on the year. So, and we'll hit a couple other things. So Peter, where do you wanna start? I'm just going to open the floor to you, what you think is most important for the listener.

[SPEAKER_A] Well, I think it's important to, when you look at the headline indices, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and you see them breaking out, I think it's important to really look under the hood to see what's dri...

Peter Boockvar: The AI Semi Trade is Nearing an Absolute Exhaustion Point

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Peter Boockvar: The AI Semi Trade is Nearing an Absolute Exhaustion Point

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.