Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today&#x27;s pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Link As discussed on today&#x27;s pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn&#x27;t specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets

Saxo Market Call

# Full Transcript

**Podcast:** Saxo Market Call

## Participants

- **John J. Hardy** (Saxo Bank)

## Transcript

Welcome to the Saxo Market Call. Before we get started, it's important we emphasize that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

Hey everyone, it is Thursday, 18th of June, 2026. Here we are post-FOMC and one of the most interesting FOMCs I've seen in a long time. What a different style in the chair and what a different direction the Fed is going to take. I'm going to cover that all in a bit. I just want to briefly do a little wrap on geopolitics. We have this memorandum of understanding, MOU, set to be signed theoretically in Switzerland tomorrow.

Trump coming out yesterday with some statements about, hey, this thing is not a signed deal. Bombs might fall. You can see how little the market is taking from this knowing that or feeling that Trump has, in any case, put this together as an ugly deal. Let's be honest, to park this whole issue for now. The head of the midterms is the market's read and many of the commentators' read.

I tend to agree with that. But of course, you need to get this signed away and this whole issue put aside for now. I like Art Berman's characterization here that this is the pause button. This is the pause button on the Iran war. For the midterms, the nuclear part is the nuclear part, meaning the fate of that nuclear material is really the time bomb. And that time bomb will go off in terms of as an issue. I'm not saying there's going to be a bomb at some point.

Whether that's in three weeks, three months, or not until after the midterms in Q3 next year, it will go off at some time. You can see where the Washington establishment is in the likes of the foreign policy's headline article that this Iran deal is worse than Vietnam. So I think we can park this issue for now, but we need to see, of course, the rest of the things falling into place in terms of the signing and no fresh hostilities breaking out. Certainly crude oil under fresh pressure this morning.

We're wondering how much lower it can go, however, as we've talked a lot about the supply backups. All right, that issue out of the way. Let's talk a little bit about the Fed, shall we? This was an important meeting, obviously, as we indicated. The biggest change of the Fed in terms of direction and style and substance since the end of the Greenspan era back in 2006. And wow, what a different communicator. Quite charismatic, I must say.

Very well, very good at handling the press and pushing back on their attempts to get him to do forward guidance, which is what, as we've flagged, as many others have flagged, this whole new communication strategy of not wanting to do forward guidance. And it was expressed within the press conference, the very good section here, except for the la...

Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.

Fed Chair Warsh impact washes over markets

Transcript

Built for investment professionals

Every day you wait, your competitors are findingedge in conversations you're not hearing.

Every day you wait, your competitors are finding
edge in conversations you're not hearing.