Gregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran&#x27;s shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran&#x27;s new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.

The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets

Oil Ground Up

Welcome back to another episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast. I'm your host, Rory Johnston. A reminder to hit subscribe and leave us a review. Oil Ground Up is distributed in partnership with the Clear Commodity Network at clearcommodity.net and also the Oil & Gas Global Network, the leading podcast network for oil and gas. Our guest today is Gregory Brew, senior analyst covering energy and Iran at the Eurasia Group. Our conversation focused on the latest unsettled state in the Strait of Hormuz,

Tehran's struggle to exert the control it claims over shipping traffic through the critical maritime choke point and how negotiations are set to evolve between the United States and Iran over the coming months. Gregory Brew, welcome back to the Oil Ground Up podcast. Hi, Rory. Thanks for having me back. All right. So obviously a lot has happened since we last spoke. So before we get into all my questions, just kind of talk me through where you currently see things.

What is the current status? I know you've been traveling a lot, talking to clients. You know, what are you seeing in the Gulf? What are people saying about the kind of current environment we're in? Things are better, but certainly not stable. So kind of talk me through how you're initially thinking about where we stand right now. Sure thing. So when the U.S. and Iran reached their MOU deal to end their war, this is a few weeks ago, my sense of it was that it really only did two things.

First, it ended the war. You know, both sides seem to have reached the conclusion that more war was bad, that a return to general hostilities really didn't serve either purpose.

The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.