In this podcast, Frida Infante and Harry Downie discuss the latest inflation data and breakeven markets across the euro area, the UK and the U.S. following a re-escalation of the US–Iran conflict, renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, and a sharp reversal higher in energy prices, and where they see the key risks. This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5351469-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Global Rates: A long hot summer for front-end inflation markets

At Any Rate

[SPEAKER_A] Hi, and welcome to At Any Rate, J.P. Morgan's global research podcast, where we take a look at some of the drivers behind the biggest trends and themes across fixed income, currencies, and commodity markets. I'm Frida Infante from the European Rates Strategy team, and I'm joined by Harry Downie from our U.S. Strategy team to discuss inflation and inflation markets in Europe and the U.S. Before we kick off though, if you have enjoyed listening to our podcast and reading our research, we would greatly appreciate your support for us and J.P. Morgan in the 2026 Exto Global Fixed Income Research Survey in the inflation-linked bonds voting section. Having said that, let me set the scene. Last month, the story was all about the ceasefire and breakeven selling off. But this month, that's flipped. Front-end inflation breakevens have rallied over the past few weeks, and energy is really the driver. Oil and gas in particular have pushed higher as hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have resumed and uncertainty around the US–Iran conflict has grown. Inflation curves have re-flattened. In net, 10-year breakevens are little changed, and inflation curves in HICP, UK RPI, and US CPI space all remain inverted. We've titled this month's outlook, A long hot summer for front-end breakevens, and that's really what Harry and I want to get into today. So, Harry, the story of energy driving breakevens higher was true across the US, Europe, and the UK. But after last week's CPI surprised to the downside, that's no longer the case. What's been driving the move lower in the US?

Global Rates: A long hot summer for front-end inflation markets

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.

Global Rates: A long hot summer for front-end inflation markets

Read the full transcript

The candid version is on a podcast, not the earnings call.

The candid version is on a podcast,
not the earnings call.