Top Moment from Joshua Rhodes on the ERCOT Data Center Bubble, Rate Pressure, and What Business Leaders Are Missing
435 gigawatts of data centers want to connect to a grid that has never delivered more than 85 gigawatts at one time, and they want to do it in five years.
In this highlight episode, Dr. Joshua Rhodes, research scientist at UT Austin, nonresident fellow at Columbia University, and one of the few independent experts who models the ERCOT grid for a living, explains why he called this a bubble in 2025 and why the numbers have only gotten more extreme since.
Joshua lays out exactly how the AI build-out is driving transformer costs up 200% and wire costs up 180%, why that infrastructure debt stays on ratepayer bills for decades, and how data center companies inflated the queue by filing the same project in five or six locations at once. He then makes the counterintuitive argument that Texas' aggressive build-out of solar, wind, and 20 gigawatts of battery storage is the very thing keeping the grid stable and that blocking renewables would have cost Texans tens of billions more in electricity costs than they paid.
What You’ll Learn in Today’s Episode:
Why the ERCOT data center queue has grown to 435 gigawatts.
Why buying infrastructure at peak prices locks in costs for decades.
How data centers gamed a queue that had no real process.
Why ERCOT's batch zero process is a step in the right direction.
How Texas solar and wind are aligned to handle summer peak demand.
Why renewables provide cost certainty that gas plants never can.
Resources in Today's Episode:
Joshua Rhodes: LinkedIn
The Energy Capital Podcast
IdeaSmiths
Gareth Evans: LinkedIn
Dan Roberts: LinkedIn
VECKTA: News
You can view a video of the conversation on VECKTA's website here: https://tinyurl.com/5a4rv952
In this highlight episode, Dr. Joshua Rhodes, research scientist at UT Austin, nonresident fellow at Columbia University, and one of the few independent experts who models the ERCOT grid for a living, explains why he called this a bubble in 2025 and why the numbers have only gotten more extreme since.
Joshua lays out exactly how the AI build-out is driving transformer costs up 200% and wire costs up 180%, why that infrastructure debt stays on ratepayer bills for decades, and how data center companies inflated the queue by filing the same project in five or six locations at once. He then makes the counterintuitive argument that Texas' aggressive build-out of solar, wind, and 20 gigawatts of battery storage is the very thing keeping the grid stable and that blocking renewables would have cost Texans tens of billions more in electricity costs than they paid.
What You’ll Learn in Today’s Episode:
Why the ERCOT data center queue has grown to 435 gigawatts.
Why buying infrastructure at peak prices locks in costs for decades.
How data centers gamed a queue that had no real process.
Why ERCOT's batch zero process is a step in the right direction.
How Texas solar and wind are aligned to handle summer peak demand.
Why renewables provide cost certainty that gas plants never can.
Resources in Today's Episode:
Joshua Rhodes: LinkedIn
The Energy Capital Podcast
IdeaSmiths
Gareth Evans: LinkedIn
Dan Roberts: LinkedIn
VECKTA: News
You can view a video of the conversation on VECKTA's website here: https://tinyurl.com/5a4rv952
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