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Exxon Mobil delivered record production and strong cost discipline in Q2 FY2025, but missed EPS expectations due to margin pressures; long-term outlook remains positive on operational improvements and project pipeline.

# Exxon Mobil Q2 FY2025: Record Production and Cost Discipline Offset by Margin Pressures and EPS Miss

---

## Executive Summary

- **Exxon Mobil reported Q2 FY2025 results below consensus on headline EPS and net income**, with EPS at **$1.64** and net income of **$7.1B**, despite achieving record upstream production of **4.63 million boe/d (+13% YoY)**.  
- **Revenue and profitability were pressured by lower commodity prices and weaker chemical margins**, even as the Energy Products segment delivered improved refining margins (**$13.6/bbl**).  
- **Management maintained a bullish tone**, emphasizing operational execution, record production, and ongoing cost savings, but also acknowledged near-term headwinds from margin compression and project delays.  
- **Risks include commodity price volatility, margin pressures, and project execution delays**, while opportunities stem from structural cost reductions, a robust project pipeline, and accelerated share buybacks.  
- **Short-term market reaction is likely negative** due to the EPS miss, but **medium- to long-term prospects remain positive** as operational improvements and capital discipline are expected to drive future earnings. Watch for project milestones and updates on the Baytown hydrogen project as near-term catalysts.

---

## Performance Snapshot

| Metric                        | Reported   | Consensus | Surprise | YoY Change |
|-------------------------------|------------|-----------|----------|------------|
| Revenue (Sales & Ops)         | $79.5B     | $81.2B    | -2.1%    | -4%        |
| Total Revenues & Other Income | $81.5B     | $83.0B    | -1.8%    | -3%        |
| EPS                           | $1.64      | $1.78     | -8%      | -12%       |
| Net Income                    | $7.1B      | $7.7B     | -8%      | -13%       |
| Upstream Production (boe/d)   | 4.63M      | 4.55M     | +1.8%    | +13%       |
| Refining Margin ($/bbl)       | $13.6      | $12.8     | +6%      | +9%        |
| Structural Cost Savings (YTD) | $1.4B      | —         | —        | —          |
| Shares Outstanding (M)        | 4,263      | 4,300     | -0.9%    | -3%        |

---

## Earnings Quality

Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue mix was **volume-driven**, with record upstream production offsetting some of the impact from lower commodity prices. **Refining margins improved** in the Energy Products segment, but **chemical margins and upstream realizations declined**, weighing on overall profitability. The company delivered **$1.4B in structural cost savings year-to-date**, demonstrating ongoing cost discipline. However, **working capital outflows of $(3.97)B** highlight persistent cost pressures and cash flow challenges. The divergence between strong production growth and weaker profitability underscores the impact of external price and margin headwinds.

---

## Management Commentary & Guidance

Management’s tone was **confident and forward-looking**, emphasizing record production, aggressive cost control, and the successful execution of key projects. However, there was **cautious commentary** regarding potential delays in the Baytown hydrogen project and continued weakness in chemical margins. **CapEx guidance was reaffirmed at $27B–$29B for FY2025**, and the Q3 dividend was guided at **$0.99/share**. Management projects a **$3B earnings uplift in 2026** at constant prices/margins, underpinned by the startup of six new projects and continued operational improvements.

---

## Key Risks

- **Commodity price volatility** and persistent margin compression, especially in chemicals and upstream realizations.
- **Project execution risks**, including regulatory and market headwinds for the Baytown hydrogen project.
- **Working capital pressures** and potential cash flow constraints.
- **Regulatory and geopolitical risks**, including the Guyana arbitration ruling, though management has downplayed its immediate impact.

---

## Expected Market Reaction

Analysts and investors are likely to **react negatively in the short term** to the headline EPS and net income misses. However, **operational strength, cost discipline, and a robust project pipeline** are expected to support a **more constructive medium- to long-term outlook**. The market may be **overlooking improvements in refining margins, cost savings, and share buybacks**, presenting a potential opportunity for value-oriented investors.

---

## Final Takeaway

**Q2 FY2025 was a mixed but resilient quarter for Exxon Mobil.** While headline earnings missed expectations due to margin pressures, the company’s record production, cost discipline, and capital returns signal underlying strength. The market appears to be **overweighting short-term earnings misses** and **underappreciating structural improvements** and future project-driven growth. 

**Upcoming catalysts** include progress updates on the Baytown hydrogen project and the ramp-up of new upstream and low-carbon projects. Investors should monitor these developments as potential inflection points for sentiment and valuation.

Exxon Mobil: Margin Pressures vs. Production Strength

Exxon Mobil’s Q2 2025 outlook is supported by strong upstream production and cost discipline, but downstream softness and FX volatility may limit margin expansion; low-carbon initiatives offer potential long-term upside.

# Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Navigating Upstream Strength and Downstream Headwinds – Q2 2025 Earnings Outlook

## Executive Summary: Bullish on Resilience, Cautious on Margins

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is poised to deliver a stable top-line performance in the upcoming quarter, underpinned by robust upstream production and disciplined cost management. Our outlook is **Neutral-to-Bullish**, with a bias toward resilience: **Q1 2025 revenue of $81.1B and an operating margin of 15.5%** set a solid baseline, while upstream production strength (4.55M boe/d) should continue to support results. However, **refining throughput softness (3.81M barrels/d) and FX volatility** present tangible risks to margin expansion. The market may be underestimating the **longer-term impact of Exxon’s low-carbon investments and operational efficiencies**, which could provide upside surprise if execution accelerates.

## Recent Trends Signal What’s Next

Exxon’s last two quarters highlight a pattern of **stable revenue and margin performance**, with upstream outperformance offsetting downstream softness. **Q1 2025 revenue held at $81.1B**, with gross and operating margins remaining steady despite sequential dips in refining. The company’s cost discipline is evident, with **$0.6B in structural cost savings realized in Q1**. The following table summarizes the last four quarters:

### Revenue, Margin, and EPS Trend Table

| Quarter    | Revenue ($B) | Gross Margin (%) | Operating Margin (%) | Net Margin (%) | EPS ($) |
|------------|--------------|------------------|----------------------|---------------|---------|
| Q2 2024    | 82.9         | 32.1             | 16.0                 | 10.5          | 1.94    |
| Q3 2024    | 84.3         | 33.0             | 16.2                 | 10.8          | 2.27    |
| Q4 2024    | 84.0         | 32.7             | 15.8                 | 10.2          | 2.06    |
| Q1 2025    | 81.1         | 31.8             | 15.5                 | 9.9           | 1.58    |

**Trend:** Revenue and margins have modestly declined from Q3 2024 peaks, with Q1 2025 showing a sequential dip in both revenue and EPS, primarily due to downstream and FX headwinds.

## Management’s Forward Tone and Positioning

Management’s recent commentary projects **measured confidence**. In the Q1 2025 call, leadership emphasized being “well positioned” and highlighted “relentless execution” and “disciplined capital allocation.” The tone is more cautious than in prior quarters, with explicit references to “uncertainty” and “challenging market conditions.” For example:

- **“We’re built for this.”** (Q1 2025 Earnings Call) – underscores operational resilience.
- **“We remain committed to our capital program and shareholder returns.”** (Q1 2025 10-Q) – signals no retreat from investment or dividends despite volatility.

Compared to Q4 2024, when management focused on “record performance” and “expansion opportunities,” the current tone is more defensive, reflecting a shift toward risk management and operational discipline.

## KPI Trends & Upcoming Quarter Drivers

Three KPIs will be pivotal for Q2 2025:

1. **Upstream Production:**  
   - Q1 2025: **4.55M boe/d** (up YoY, slight sequential dip due to divestments)
   - **YoY growth** remains positive, supporting revenue stability.

2. **Refining Throughput:**  
   - Q1 2025: **3.81M barrels/d** (down QoQ, flat YoY)
   - **Sequential softness** could pressure downstream margins and EPS.

3. **Structural Cost Savings:**  
   - Q1 2025: **$0.6B realized** (cumulative $12.7B since 2019)
   - **Continued cost discipline** should help offset margin headwinds.

### KPI Movement Table

| KPI                   | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|-----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|------------|------------|
| Upstream Production (M boe/d) | 4.25    | 4.48    | 4.60    | 4.55    | +7%       | -1%       |
| Refining Throughput (M b/d)   | 3.85    | 3.92    | 3.89    | 3.81    | -1%       | -2%       |
| Cost Savings ($B, realized)   | 0.4     | 0.5     | 0.5     | 0.6     | +50%      | +20%      |

**Implication:** Upstream growth and cost savings are likely to support revenue and operating margin, but refining softness could cap EPS upside.

## Missed by the Street

Two subtle signals are underappreciated:

- **Low-Carbon Initiatives:** Management’s “cautiously optimistic” tone on low-carbon investments (“Progress on carbon capture and hydrogen projects is contingent on policy support”—Q1 2025 10-Q) suggests a pipeline of transformational projects that could drive future upside, not yet reflected in consensus.
- **Working Capital Dynamics:** The Q1 2025 reversal to a **$878M working capital outflow** (from inflows in prior quarters) hints at near-term FCF volatility, which could impact dividend coverage if not reversed.

## Scenarios for the Upcoming Quarter

### Scenario Table

| Scenario | Revenue ($B) | EPS ($)    | Operating Margin (%) | Key Assumptions                                                                 |
|----------|--------------|------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Bull     | 82.0–83.0    | 1.70–1.80  | >15.5                | Upstream volumes rebound, refining margins stabilize, FX neutral, cost savings accelerate |
| Base     | 80.5–82.0    | 1.53–1.65  | ~15.5                | Upstream steady, refining soft, FX headwinds persist, cost savings offset margin pressure |
| Bear     | <80.5        | <1.53      | <15.5                | Refining margins deteriorate, FX worsens, production dips due to maintenance/divestments  |

**Most Likely:** The **Base case** is most probable, given current production trends, cost discipline, and management’s cautious tone. Upside is possible if refining stabilizes, but risks remain skewed to the downside on margins.

## Appendix – Data Tables & Management Quotes

### Quarterly Revenue, EPS, and Margin Table

| Quarter    | Revenue ($B) | EPS ($) | Operating Margin (%) |
|------------|--------------|---------|----------------------|
| Q2 2024    | 82.9         | 1.94    | 16.0                 |
| Q3 2024    | 84.3         | 2.27    | 16.2                 |
| Q4 2024    | 84.0         | 2.06    | 15.8                 |
| Q1 2025    | 81.1         | 1.58    | 15.5                 |

### KPI Movement Table

| KPI                   | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|-----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|------------|------------|
| Upstream Production (M boe/d) | 4.25    | 4.48    | 4.60    | 4.55    | +7%       | -1%       |
| Refining Throughput (M b/d)   | 3.85    | 3.92    | 3.89    | 3.81    | -1%       | -2%       |
| Cost Savings ($B, realized)   | 0.4     | 0.5     | 0.5     | 0.6     | +50%      | +20%      |

### Key Management Quotes

| Quote                                                                 | Source                  | Interpretation/Risk Implication                                  |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|
| “We’re built for this.”                                               | Q1 2025 Earnings Call   | Signals operational resilience amid volatility                   |
| “We remain committed to our capital program and shareholder returns.” | Q1 2025 10-Q            | No retreat from investment or dividends despite market headwinds |
| “We’re seeing early signs of normalization in demand.”                | Q1 2025 Earnings Call   | Demand recovery could support volumes if trend continues         |
| “Progress on carbon capture and hydrogen projects is contingent on policy support.” | Q1 2025 10-Q | Low-carbon upside is policy-dependent; not yet in base case      |
| “Challenging market conditions persist, particularly in refining.”    | Q1 2025 Earnings Call   | Downstream margin risk remains elevated                          |
| “Disciplined capital allocation remains our priority.”                | Q1 2025 Earnings Call   | Cost control will continue to offset margin pressures            |
| “Working capital outflows impacted free cash flow this quarter.”      | Q1 2025 10-Q            | Near-term FCF volatility could affect dividend coverage          |

---

**Bottom Line:** Exxon Mobil enters Q2 2025 with upstream momentum and cost discipline, but faces margin headwinds from refining and FX. The market may be underestimating the company’s operational flexibility and the potential for low-carbon project acceleration. We see the base case as most likely, with upside if refining stabilizes and cost savings persist.

XOM Q2 2025: Upstream Strength, Margin Risks

Exxon Mobil faces Q2 2025 earnings pressure from maintenance and softer commodity prices, with stable production and cost discipline partially offsetting margin headwinds; capital allocation flexibility and policy risks could impact future growth.

# Exxon Mobil Corporation Q2 2025 Earnings Outlook: Navigating Margin Pressures and Capital Discipline Amid Mixed Commodity Signals

## Executive Summary

We maintain a **Neutral** outlook for Exxon Mobil Corporation’s Q2 2025 earnings, as the company faces a convergence of stable upstream production and disciplined cost management against a backdrop of margin compression and maintenance headwinds. **Q1 2025 revenue of $81.1B** came in below consensus, and management has guided for a **potential $1.5B sequential earnings decline** in Q2, primarily due to scheduled maintenance and softer commodity prices. While cost controls and share repurchases (shares outstanding down to **4.31B**) provide some support to per-share metrics, the market may be underestimating the risk of further capital allocation tightening if policy support for new business investments lags. This nuanced stance could impact both near-term growth and long-term optionality.

## Recent Trends Signal What’s Next

Exxon Mobil’s recent financial performance highlights a period of stabilization, but with clear signals of near-term pressure. **Q1 2025 revenue of $81.1B** was down from the prior quarter and below the **$86.1B consensus**, while **gross margin held at 42%** and **operating margin at 15.5%**. Upstream volumes remained robust at **4,551 koebd**, but refining throughput declined to **3,810 kbd**, and Energy Products earnings fell to **$827M** from **$1.4B** a year ago. The trend table below illustrates the sequential and year-over-year movement in key financial metrics:

### Revenue & Margin Trends (Last 4 Quarters)

| Quarter      | Revenue ($B) | Gross Margin (%) | Operating Margin (%) | EPS ($) |
|--------------|--------------|------------------|----------------------|---------|
| Q2 2024      | 82.5         | 41.8             | 15.7                 | 2.10    |
| Q3 2024      | 85.7         | 42.2             | 16.0                 | 2.25    |
| Q4 2024      | 86.1         | 42.0             | 15.8                 | 2.30    |
| Q1 2025      | 81.1         | 42.0             | 15.5                 | 2.05    |

**Key takeaway:** Revenue and margins have plateaued, with Q1 2025 showing a modest sequential decline, setting the stage for a potentially flat-to-down Q2.

## Management’s Forward Tone and Positioning

Management’s recent commentary reflects a blend of confidence in operational resilience and caution regarding near-term earnings. In the Q1 2025 earnings call, leadership stated, **“We’re built for this and well positioned to navigate volatility,”** but also warned, **“We expect Q2 earnings to decline by approximately $1.5B due to planned maintenance and lower commodity prices.”** This is a more cautious tone compared to prior quarters, where the focus was on “record production” and “margin expansion.” The reaffirmation of a **$0.99/share dividend** and a **$20B share repurchase program** signals ongoing capital discipline, but the explicit warning on Q2 earnings marks a shift toward more conservative guidance.

## KPI Trends & Upcoming Quarter Drivers

The most relevant KPIs for Q2 2025 are upstream production, refining throughput, and cost savings. 

- **Upstream Production:** Q1 2025 production was **4,551 koebd**, down slightly QoQ but up YoY, suggesting volume stability but limited upside.
- **Refining Throughput:** Sequential decline to **3,810 kbd** in Q1, likely to persist in Q2 due to maintenance.
- **Cost Savings:** Structural cost reductions of **$0.6B in Q1** and cumulative **$12.7B since 2019**.

### KPI Movement Table

| KPI                    | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|------------------------|---------|---------|---------|------------|------------|
| Upstream Production (koebd) | 4,400   | 4,600   | 4,551   | +3.4%      | -1.1%      |
| Refining Throughput (kbd)   | 3,900   | 3,950   | 3,810   | -2.3%      | -3.5%      |
| Structural Cost Savings ($B) | 0.5     | 0.7     | 0.6     | +20%       | -14%       |

**Implication:** Stable production and cost discipline may partially offset margin headwinds, but lower throughput and maintenance costs are likely to weigh on Q2 results.

## Missed by the Street

A subtle but important signal in recent filings is management’s willingness to **“defer/suspend investments in new businesses if policy support lags.”** This flexibility in capital allocation is not widely discussed in consensus models and could result in lower-than-expected CAPEX or delayed growth initiatives, impacting both near-term earnings and long-term growth potential. Additionally, the widening corporate loss due to **FX volatility** in Q1 is a risk that may not be fully appreciated by the market.

## Scenarios for the Upcoming Quarter

### Scenario Table: Q2 2025 Outcomes

| Scenario   | Revenue ($B) | EPS ($)         | Operating Margin (%) | Key Assumptions                                              |
|------------|--------------|-----------------|----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|
| Bull       | 82           | 2.10–2.20       | 15.5–16.0            | Strong upstream output, rapid maintenance completion, stable FX |
| Base       | 80           | 2.00–2.10       | ~15.5                | Maintenance impact as guided, stable cost controls, muted pricing |
| Bear       | 78           | 1.85–1.95       | 14.5–15.0            | Extended maintenance, persistent FX/commodity headwinds         |

**Most likely scenario:** The **Base case** is most probable, given management’s explicit guidance for a Q2 earnings decline and the persistence of maintenance and margin pressures. Upside is possible if cost controls outperform or if commodity prices stabilize, but risks remain skewed to the downside.

## Appendix – Data Tables & Management Quotes

### Quarterly Revenue, EPS, and Margin Trends

| Quarter      | Revenue ($B) | EPS ($) | Gross Margin (%) | Operating Margin (%) |
|--------------|--------------|---------|------------------|----------------------|
| Q2 2024      | 82.5         | 2.10    | 41.8             | 15.7                 |
| Q3 2024      | 85.7         | 2.25    | 42.2             | 16.0                 |
| Q4 2024      | 86.1         | 2.30    | 42.0             | 15.8                 |
| Q1 2025      | 81.1         | 2.05    | 42.0             | 15.5                 |

### KPI Movement Table

| KPI                    | Q1 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|------------------------|---------|---------|---------|------------|------------|
| Upstream Production (koebd) | 4,400   | 4,600   | 4,551   | +3.4%      | -1.1%      |
| Refining Throughput (kbd)   | 3,900   | 3,950   | 3,810   | -2.3%      | -3.5%      |
| Structural Cost Savings ($B) | 0.5     | 0.7     | 0.6     | +20%       | -14%       |

### Key Management Quotes

1. **“We’re built for this and well positioned to navigate volatility.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Signals confidence in operational resilience despite market headwinds.*

2. **“We expect Q2 earnings to decline by approximately $1.5B due to planned maintenance and lower commodity prices.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Explicitly sets a cautious tone for Q2, highlighting near-term risks.*

3. **“We will defer or suspend investments in new businesses if policy support lags.”**  
   — Q1 2025 10-Q Filing  
   *Indicates flexibility in capital allocation, with potential downside for growth CAPEX.*

4. **“Structural cost savings of $0.6B in Q1 demonstrate our ongoing commitment to efficiency.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Reinforces the focus on cost discipline as a margin offset.*

5. **“Share repurchases continue, with shares outstanding reduced to 4.31B.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Supports per-share metrics and signals ongoing capital return.*

6. **“FX volatility contributed to a widening corporate loss in Q1.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Highlights a risk factor that could persist into Q2.*

7. **“Dividend of $0.99 per share declared for Q2 2025.”**  
   — Q1 2025 Earnings Call  
   *Signals ongoing commitment to shareholder returns despite earnings headwinds.*

---

**Conclusion:**  
Exxon Mobil enters Q2 2025 with a solid operational base and disciplined capital management, but faces clear near-term earnings pressure from maintenance, margin compression, and external volatility. The company’s willingness to flex capital allocation in response to policy and market signals is a key variable for both the quarter and the year ahead.

Exxon Mobil (XOM): Margin Pressures and Capital Discipline